It's prediction time!

by HomeBruin on Aug 29, 2006 7:43 PM PDT Comment 30 comments

From the diaries. Everyone knows what we want this season. If you haven't chime in already in the comment thread tell us whether we are going to get our 9 wins and victory over SC. Tell us how UCLA will do this upcoming season. GO BRUINS. -N

Well, ladies and gentlemen, you princes and princesses of Bruins Nation, the season is finally upon us. We've monitored the recruiting season, we've overanalyzed the heck out of spring practice, and watched with baited breath as the position battles have played themselves out.

It's football season, and, for many of us, this season will be a defining moment in Bruins football. Moreover, it may be the defining season for one Karl Dorrell, head football coach at the best university in the land.

Without further ado, it's prediction time. The UCLA football record will be...?

09/02 Utah 4:00 pm
09/09 Rice 7:00 pm
09/23 @ Washington TBA
09/30 Stanford TBA
10/07 Arizona TBA
10/14 @ Oregon TBA
10/21 @ ND 11:30 am
10/28 Wash. State 4:00 pm
11/04 @ Cal 5:00 pm
11/11 Oregon State TBA
11/18 @ ASU 7:15 pm
12/02 USC 1:30 pm

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Prediction

9-3

Boisebruin

by boisebruin on Aug 29, 2006 1:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

10-2

09/02 Utah- W
09/09 Rice- W
09/23 @ Washington- W
09/30 Stanford- W
10/07 Arizona- W
10/14 @ Oregon- L
10/21 @ ND- W
10/28 Wash. State- W
11/04 @ Cal- L
11/11 Oregon State- W
11/18 @ ASU- W
12/02 USC- W

by ryebreadraz on Aug 29, 2006 1:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Expectation/Prediction

Here are my expectations.

I think the ASU/SC game are toss ups.

And we will beat ASU which obviously has issues eating away at the core of Koetter's program.

We will beat SC this year at home. We are due.

Just don't think we are going to be able to stay with Cal.

I am picking us to lose against Oregon and ND.

Yeah ... 9-3 with this team sounds more than realistic.

Thanks for getting this thread started HB. Like to see what everyone else is thinking.

by Nestor on Aug 29, 2006 5:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

woah 10-2? maybe 9-3

09/02 Utah- W
09/09 Rice- W
09/23 @ Washington- W
09/30 Stanford- W
10/07 Arizona- W vindication
10/14 @ Oregon- W the last time Dorrel went into Oregon (as a slight underdog I think?) we came out with a win
10/21 @ ND- L Olson curses on field and touchdown Jesus strikes us down with a loss.
10/28 Wash. State- W
11/04 @ Cal- L We've tended to do poorly at cal (as in haven't won under Dorrel)
11/11 Oregon State- W Matt "Moore" Interceptions please!
11/18 @ ASU- W Too bad we cant take advantage of the QB thing earlier in the season.
12/02 USC- W This is as good a time as any in remainder of this decade to pull off a win...but just because it hasnt happened recently, that doesn't mean it's more likely to happen now (thats why people lose at roulette :P)

by ranelar on Aug 29, 2006 6:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Here is mine

09/02 Utah- W
09/09 Rice- W
09/23 @ Washington- W
09/30 Stanford- W
10/07 Arizona- W
10/14 @ Oregon- L
10/21 @ ND- L
10/28 Wash. State- W
11/04 @ Cal- L
11/11 Oregon State- W
11/18 @ ASU- L
12/02 USC- W

We will go 8-4 and the win over the SC will get us a win at the bowl game, finish the season at 9-4.

by bluestreet on Aug 29, 2006 6:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

10-2 regular season

09/02 Utah (win)
09/09 Rice (win)
09/23 @ Washington (win)
09/30 Stanford (win)
10/07 Arizona (win)
10/14 @ Oregon (win)
10/21 @ ND (loss)
10/28 Wash. State (win)
11/04 @ Cal (loss)
11/11 Oregon State (win)
11/18 @ ASU (win)
12/02 USC (win)

This projection is very rosy, but more than doable. Some of these wins are more easier than others. I hope that my projected losses (@ ND and @ Cal) are not on the same scale as last year's. We win our bowl game and finish 11-2, and Karl Dorrell will put his name in UCLA's record book. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but I don't believe any team in the history of UCLA has ever won 11 games. This will set us up nicely for a national title run next year. As far as the bowl game goes, I think we'll still be stuck with the Holiday Bowl if we go 8-1 in the conference (10-2 overall) unless we somehow win the conference which is a very remote possibility. We're putting all our eggs in Ben Olson's basket now. May the force be with him!

GO BRUINS!!!

by bruinzete on Aug 29, 2006 6:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

8-4

Losing every game as an underdog; @Oregon, @Notre Dame, @Cal, USC.

I think ASU will have melted down by then, and won't be favored. But if they are, then it's 7-5.

by McCloskey on Aug 29, 2006 7:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Question

Do you happen to know what's Dorrell record going against favorites in last 3 years?

by bluestreet on Aug 29, 2006 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

KD's record as an underdog

2003
Colorado +3 LOSS
Oklahoma +19 LOSS
Washington +1 WIN (Huskies finished the year 6-6)
WSU +10 LOSS
USC +22 LOSS

2004
California +16 LOSS
ASU +7 LOSS
Oregon +7 WIN (Ducks finished the season 5-6)
USC +22 LOSS

2005
USC +21 LOSS

KD's record as an underdog is 2-8.

In 37 games KD has been the underdog only 10 times. (not a tough schedule) But he's got 15 losses; 8 as an underdog and 7 more as the favorite.

Losses as the favorite

2003
Stanford -6 LOSS
Oregon -2 LOSS
Fresno ST. -3 LOSS

2003
Oklahoma St. -1 LOSS
WSU -14 LOSS
Wyoming -12 LOSS

2005
Arizona -9 LOSS

by McCloskey on Aug 29, 2006 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

Amazing how you have this info. at your fingertips. U understand why you are being down on this season given the track record of Dorrell. Your picks make sense.

But maybe just maybe Ben Olson is the guy who will make the difference. This season is going to be so interesting. We are going to find out a lot of answers.

Thanks again M.

by bluestreet on Aug 29, 2006 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting, but...

Trying to use the odds to prove that Dorrell doesn't win big games is punishing him for the faith of the UCLA fans.

For instance, we played a ranked team last year while we were unranked, but we were still favored by a touchdown. Many of the experts said the odds were wrong and that Oklahoma would win, but Bruins fans kept putting down their money. By this summary, Dorrell makes no points by beating the experts' predictions.

Of course, when you make the obvious argument that we don't beat many ranked teams, I'm going to say that the rating system is flawed, because I'm an inveterate supporter at this point.

I just don't think that in this case past results are a good predictor of future performance; Dorrell had a team he inherited and now he has a team he has built. We'll see how that works out as it happens.

by antipimp on Aug 30, 2006 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so.

The odds on a game don't depend on Bruin fans, or Oklahoma fans, or any other school's fans. Millions of dollars are wagered on CFB by thousands of bettors. What the OK game showed, was that the collective public was smarter than the "experts" ranking teams. The betting public realized that the Sooners had a dinged-up running back, and a very shakey frosh QB, and were grossly overranked at that point in the season. That's why a majority of the betting dollars thought the Bruins would win the game, and the line had to be set at 6 points.

by McCloskey on Aug 30, 2006 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No argument

Like I said, I'm not even going to pretend to have a consistent point in this. And it was interesting and it is impressive how you can turn around and find those numbers so quickly.

Out of curiosity, do you have all the schools' numbers like that? Or have you personally compiled the UCLA stats? I'm wondering, since we play them this year, if there's a way to do the same thing for Notre Dame? I assume they'll look as bad or worse under this method since they have a rabid fan base that assumes they're a national championship contender every year even though they can't seem to win any bowl game to save their lives in recent years.

Now that Dorrell is telling us he has his team ready, I'm hoping that we upset a few teams this year and next season we see a better result when looking up the same information.

by antipimp on Aug 30, 2006 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't have the info on ND

but I looked it up.

Ty Willingham - 2002
Record as the favorite; 6-1
Record as the underdog; 4-2

Ty Willingham - 2003
Record as the favorite; 4-2
Record as the underdog; 1-5

Ty Willingham - 2004
Record as the favorite; 4-3
Record as the underdog; 2-3

Charlie Weiss - 2005
Record as the favorite; 6-1
Record as the underdog; 3-2

by McCloskey on Aug 30, 2006 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

10-2

09/02 Utah 4:00 pm-W
09/09 Rice 7:00 pm-W
09/23 @ Washington TBA-W
09/30 Stanford TBA-W
10/07 Arizona TBA-W
10/14 @ Oregon TBA-W
10/21 @ ND 11:30 am-L
10/28 Wash. State 4:00 pm-W
11/04 @ Cal 5:00 pm-L
11/11 Oregon State TBA-W
11/18 @ ASU 7:15 pm-W
12/02 USC 1:30 pm-W

by BruinFanatic1988 on Aug 29, 2006 8:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

9-3 or better

I guess I'm hesitant to go into specifics on which games we might lose at this point, because there's often a game like the Arizona game last year that just can't be predicted to turn out the way it does. So we will probably lose to one of the schools against whom we are favored. But I really do like our chances against a Notre Dame team that is hearing everywhere they go that they're the best team in the country right now, with the best quarterback, so that will make up for the unexpected loss.

And I agree with Nestor that we will win against USC just because at some point the UCLA players have to take a look at themselves and have some pride. Seven years is already far too long.

Those being the two supposed toughest teams we'll face, and thinking we have a better-than-even chance at beating both of them, it's hard to pick which other teams might be able to beat us, but I do expect that we'll be respected by the end of the season.

by antipimp on Aug 29, 2006 8:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

6-6 No Bowl

Possibly 5-7. Southpaw Jesus performs well for his debut year, but poor play selection, poor and thin defense - although improved, inexperienced players at key positions, and the inevitable late season collapse puts KD on the hot seat.

09/02 Utah-Tossup
09/09 Rice- W
09/23 @ Washington- W
09/30 Stanford- W
10/07 Arizona- L
10/14 @ Oregon- L
10/21 @ ND- L
10/28 Wash. State- W
11/04 @ Cal- L
11/11 Oregon State- W
11/18 @ ASU- L
12/02 USC- L

"To the mediocre, mediocrity appears great"

by DumpDorrell on Aug 29, 2006 9:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Reasonably pessimistic, I see

by bruinzete on Aug 29, 2006 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hate to say it but...

All of you who think the Bruins are due for another 10 win season are in for a huge disappointment. The lucky breaks we rode last year to a 10-2 season will not be going our way this year. Without Drew Olson's near-perfect season and Maurice Drew's heroic efforts, there's no way we will even win 9 games. I see losses to Utah, Notre Dame, Cal, ASU, Oregon and (gulp) 'SC. Best case scenario is 7-5 and another gruesome performance against a mediocre team in an embarassingly pathetic bowl game.

Believe me, I HATE to feel this way about my team, but I just don't see any reason to be optimistic. When does basketball season start?

by SactoBruin on Aug 29, 2006 12:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not optimistic about this team

I think this team is breaking in too many starters at too many key positions. I think nine wins is highly unlikely. My guess is they'll be 7-5.

Cola
http://www.classiccolaforthesoul.com

by Cola on Aug 29, 2006 8:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

7-5

While the schedule is favorable early, there are too many tough road games in October and November for a team with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and first year starters in key positions.

09/02 Utah- W
09/09 Rice- W
09/23 @ Washington- W
09/30 Stanford- W
10/07 Arizona- L
10/14 @ Oregon- L
10/21 @ ND- L
10/28 Wash. State- W
11/04 @ Cal- L
11/11 Oregon State- W
11/18 @ ASU- W
12/02 USC- L

by hedrick3south on Aug 29, 2006 8:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

8-4, plus a bowl win

5-0 heading up to Eugene. Rest of the season yields wins against WSU, OSU and ASU. The most important achievement in 2006, however, is the surprisingly tough defense and Olson's maturation. This team is going to be hiding its flaws in the early games but will really come together by the sc game, which will be tough, closer than people think, but a likely loss. A resumption of the momentum will happen in a solid bowl game performance leading to a breakthrough 2007. I'd much rather say that 2006 is our year, but it's not.

by pnwbruin on Aug 29, 2006 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Another Vote for 8-4

09/02 Utah W (close)
09/09 Rice W
09/23 @ Washington W
09/30 Stanford W
10/07 Arizona W (also close)
10/14 @ Oregon L
10/21 @ ND L
10/28 Wash. State W (a shootout)
11/04 @ Cal L
11/11 Oregon State W (no revenge for Matt Moore)
11/18 @ ASU W (fingers crossed)
12/02 USC L (but a battle this time)

I think Ben will shine, Moya will surprise, Bell may upstage Markey, and the defense? We'll see.

by MacBruin on Aug 30, 2006 12:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

As an objective outsider

I think you're looking at 8-4 this year.

by Mike on Aug 30, 2006 10:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Undefeated

Until proven otherwise.

Actually I think 9-3 or 10-2 is realistic based on expected experience growth through the early (easy)part of the schedule which should then help us handle the tougher, back end of the schedule.

I believe the Cal & Oregon games will possibly be the only defeats and others too close to call.

GO BRUINS!!!!

by artybruin on Aug 30, 2006 10:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Another outsider's opinion

09/02 Utah 4:00 pm - W
09/09 Rice 7:00 pm - W
09/23 @ Washington TBA - W
09/30 Stanford TBA - W
10/07 Arizona TBA - W
10/14 @ Oregon TBA - L
10/21 @ ND 11:30 am - L
10/28 Wash. State 4:00 pm - W
11/04 @ Cal 5:00 pm - L
11/11 Oregon State TBA - W
11/18 @ ASU 7:15 pm - W
12/02 USC 1:30 pm - L

I think 8-4, although I really hope the Bruins do get the 9 wins and that win over USC, I can't stand the trojans.

by CaliWolverine on Aug 30, 2006 11:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs