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Victory on 12/2

Pom Pom owns Karl Dorrell. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to make that argument. In 2 out of 3 matchups vs. Dorrell, Pom Pom smashed and humiliated Dorrell's football team, sullying the name of U.C.L.A. in front of the whole world. The only accomplishment Dorrell has in last three years v. Southern Cal? Couple of recruiting wins here and there (Bryan Pryce comes into mind) and that true moral victory at the Rose Bowl from two years ago, which sent Dorrell supporters into a tizzy for few weeks till it all came crashing down against Wyoming.

So some in Dorrell's programs are feeling good these days coming off 2 straight wins against couple of hapless Pac-10 has-beens. Efforts will probably be underway from Morgan Center to exude the feeling how this will be gratifying season if somehow UCLA can make a good showing "competing" (watch for that word next two weeks) against Southern Cal, and get it's 7th win in some no name bowl game during Christmas week. And if by chance Dorrell pulls of a victory against Southern Cal, it will be billed as the one of the greatest victories in the history of UCLA football, allowing Dorrell to collect million dollar checks for at least 3-4 more years.

However, if you look at the numbers from last three years into the Southern Cal and UCLA teams, you will see a victory against Pom Pom's program will not be all that big of a deal at the Rose Bowl.

Here are the numbers for Southern Cal from last four years to date. I highlighted 2004 because you know that was the year Dorrell almost pulled of his true moral victory ... er ... snatched defeat from jaws of victory:

Southern Cal (2003-06)

Year Record Rush Off. Pass Off. Tot. Off. Scoring Off. Rush Def. Pass Eff. Def. Total Def. Scoring D
2003 12-1 155.92 291.62 447.54 41.08 60.15 110.92 336.38 18.38
2004 13-0 177.38 271.69 449.08 38.15 79.38 101.33 279.31 13.00
2005 12-1 260.00 319.77 579.77 49.08 130.54 118.77 360.92 22.85
2006 9-1 142.20 250.00 392.20 31.10 92.10 106.22 288.60 14.20

Few things jump out at once:

Pretty clear this is Southern California?s weakest offensive teams from last four years. Don?t get me wrong. They still have their superstars in DeWayne ?Free Rent? Jarrett and Steve Smith. However, I just don?t see why the DeWayne Walker defense should be shuddering about a Trojan running game, which is nowhere close to the effectiveness of Lendale and While. And given how the Bruin D ransacked Brady Quinn?s offense in South Bend, I think it is more than reasonable to expect from Davis, Hickman, Harwell, and Brown to hit Booty in the chin, and make him spit blood on the Rose Bowl turf.

Few people are worried about the Trojan D. But numbers wise they actually brought in a more impressive defense in 2004, when the Bruins pulled out a win without MJD. If not for KD?s clock mismanagement and questionable calls on Bush fumble, Bruins would have ended the streak two years ago. But we are not going to cry about the ref?s call. We will leave that up for the Sooners fans.

In any event this year Bruins head into this game with the best defense in the Dorrell era. Their offense has been sputtering. However, they are going to have the same amount of talent on offense they did going into the 2004 game without MJD (who was all banged up). Here are UCLA numbers from last four years. 2004 highlighted again:

UCLA (2003-06)

Year Record Rush Off. Pass Off. Tot. Off. Scoring Off. Rush Def. Pass Eff. Def. Total Def. Scoring D
2003 6-7 91.92 203.00 294.92 19.08 116.92 113.66 217.62 23.46
2004 6-6 184.92 225.08 410.00 30.08 210.08 118.35 432.92 25.75
2005 10-2 160.67 270.33 431.00 39.08 232.75 128.48 468.08 34.17
2006 6-5 124.73 204.55 329.27 23.55 93.09 123.77 302.64 18.73

So what am I getting here?

We expect a victory over the Trojans. And we think a victory over Trojans will not be all that of a shocking occurrence considering the talent we have sprinkled throughout the roster (again Bruins are third in the conference behind Southern Cal and Cal in terms of overall talent in its depth chart).

Bruins have the manpower on defense to bottle up the Trojans. So it will be up to their offense to make some big plays, and sustain some drives giving their team-mates on the other side some much needed resting time. I do think KD should start Cowan riding whatever momentum he has from last two wins. Hopefully PC will come out and make some big plays, mounting sustaining drives like he did initially against Cal. If PC does that, QBing an offense without any mistakes, then the Bruins will be fine. Otherwise, if he is showing any signs of ineffective offense (which he showed during first halves of ASU and OSU), then KD should signal for BO. If KD takes some chances on offense, special teams couple of big plays, and the D maintains it?s intensity from last two games the Bruins will win this game.

Trojans will be coming off a huge game against the Irish. And judging from their performances against Washington, ASU, and OSU (teams which the Bruins beat and should have beaten), it is more than reasonable to expect the Bruins to finally end that insufferable streak and end the agony of last 7 years.

And judging from the numbers even when the Bruins pull out this win, while we should go bonkers over it, we shouldn?t look at it as OMFG it?s the greatest Bruin win ever! Nothing is one the line for UCLA except to play of the role of spoilers. Not even a Rose Bowl or even a Holiday Bowl is on the line. And that is why UCLA should fire Dorrell even after our boys pull of the expected "W" ending the streak on December 2nd.

We should own those motherf*ckers in our own house. Beating them at the Rose Bowl should be a norm, not an aberration in the UCLA football program. The fact that the Bruins find themselves in a situation where players are pathetically giddy over making into some Pineapple Bowl and certain fans are apprehensive about apprehensive about a win over these SCums on December 2nd is a damning indictment on Karl Dorrell. And that is why he should be fired or resign after the Bruins pull out the victory on 12/2

GO BRUINS.

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Nice post.
Typo in the first chart.  Highlighted row says "2005", should be "2004"

by McCloskey on Nov 20, 2006 3:29 PM PST   0 recs

Another Typo
There has to be another major typo.  Can't spot exactly where you say it, but the gist of the post is that you expect the Bruins to win.  I won't quibble with what the numbers say, but you don't give any weight you have to the "intangibles."  

On the sc side, you have guys who get free rent, whose parents get free rent, all of whom drive brand new cars despite being from dirt-poor backgrounds, etc.  On the Bruin side, you have the intangible that has the sportscasters telling us that we can throw the records out the window -- We have Coach Dorrell.  As long as we have him, we cannot and will not win a big game.

I was about to go on and on about how the facts show this and that.  I guess the only "fact" is that this is my opinion.  I think the basis is reasonable, and I certainly hope I'm wrong.  (Yes, I'll take mediocrity if it means beating sc.)

by Fox 71 on Nov 20, 2006 7:23 PM PST   0 recs

Guess you are being sarcastic
I think one can make the honest argument that the intangibles should be on UCLA side as well.

Everyone (deservedly) is sh!tting on UCLA. Trojans are thinking about Ohio State. They have December 2nd marked off as a sure shot win, while Dorrell fans are excited to play Hawaii or BYU.

If UCLA players had one ounce of pride left in themselves and our school, they'd come out breathing fire and play with incredible emotion, bringing the intangible portion of equation in our favor.

I think give the history of this game, the last few years, our defense, this will be a victory for us.

I see it as win/win.

If we win - we will have finally something to feel good about, although we will get back to holding KD accountable the next day.

If we lose - it may be the final nail in KD's coffin.

But for now I do believe we are going to win this game.

by Nestor on Nov 20, 2006 7:33 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Sigh
I hope you're right, but I think you're wrong.  

It's difficult to envision anything bad happening following a win over sc.  Sure, KD coming back would be bad, but the way things are in the Athletic Department, he would probably be back anyway.

by Fox 71 on Nov 21, 2006 4:59 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Beating SC is HUGE
You're disappointed with the football season and with KD and I have no qualms there.  If the point of the post is to set it up that win or lose, you want KD out, that's fine.  I know you are trying to establish a much higher standard for our football program and that's great.  But unfortunately we are not there.  So I have to disagree that 'a victory over Pom's Pom's program will not be all that of a big deal.'  You already pointed out that Pom Pom owns KD and in previous posts have pointed out KD's inability to get a marquee win.  You have indicated that Cal has more talent than us and SC handled them just like Cal handled us.  The numbers don't tell the whole story b/c SC is peaking and will probably beat ND.  So we will be facing a #2 team with hopes of a national championship (which will start the bs hype about their 4th NC game and we all know that they have won only 1).  Our offense is no where close to 2004.  We need to have an offensive game like we did against Utah if we have any hopes of winning.  While our defense is much improved (the sorry teams don't run up big numbers against us), it is still a ways away from being an elite defense.  That is, a defense that can on its own win a big game for us.  We are going to need to put a complete game together (including special teams) to beat SC.  If given the choice:  a) lose to SC and KD is gone or b) beat SC and KD is back, I will take b) and not b/c I am a KD fan.  7 in a row is enough.  I want to enjoy the holidays this year.

by WoodenScates on Nov 20, 2006 8:41 PM PST   0 recs

SC is peaking
yes they just beat a Cal team which to date hasn't won a big game and previous to that they got a shut out win over Stanford. Sorry I am not all that impressed.

Our offense actually wasn't all the impressive in 2004. Specially in the second half. Lot of the stats from that season was eschewed by MJD's huge performance against Washington and we didn't have him for the game against Southern Cal. Also Olson was a fairly erratic QB in 2004.

I will definitely enjoy a win over Southern Cal, but I will certainly not think of it as big as win as I thought the win was in 1993, when the last play of the game sealed our trip to the Rose Bowl.

by Nestor on Nov 20, 2006 8:47 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

A win over #2 in the nation
is a big win, esp when it is your cross town rival and you have just knocked them out of the national championship and broken the 7 in a row streak.  I mention Cal only b/c you constantly talk about their talent pool.  Far be it for me to argue for SC but look at their overall schedule and what they lost last year and they arguably are the best 1 loss team in the nation.  Granted, we have nothing on the line in terms of Rose Bowl and NC and like I said earlier, I agree that the standards should be way up.  But to beat SC is a huge win and at least where the standards are now it will be KD's most significant win.

by WoodenScates on Nov 21, 2006 6:21 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

A win over SC ...
Sure a win over Trojans will be KD's "most significant win," however it will not mitigate the multiple disgraceful losses in this season and from last three.

by Nestor on Nov 21, 2006 6:42 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Say What?
A win vs figtech is always welcome, especially if it denies them, which it appears it will, a chance at a NC.  This would also stop all the streaks, the crap we have had to endure for SEVEN YEARS.  I totally agree with the previous poster, WoodenScates (nice handle btw).  I do not want to lose to them.  Ever.

Do I want the program to "elevate" itself?  Absolutely.  Does KD have the ability to do it?  No.  Will the administration make that decision?  No.  That is a likely fact.  I have contributed to the program monetarily for years because I care about this program and, like you, want it to be better....much better.  I stopped writing checks this year.  

I still want to put them away, however, regardless of the above.

It will all be moot, as I believe they will win again.  THEN you might see something happen at the Morgan Center.  

GO BRUINS

by pnwbruin on Nov 21, 2006 6:44 AM PST   0 recs

Uhm
read the post carefully. no where in the post I am not welcoming a win over SC. I want it.

the point of the post is that a win over SC on our home turf will not be the biggest deal ever. We should act like we have been there before.

After all the Trojans fired Hackett after he ended the 8 game streak against us in 1999.

Read carefully before hyperventillating.

by Nestor on Nov 21, 2006 6:48 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Reading it carefully or not
the post doesn't make sense.

by WoodenScates on Nov 21, 2006 7:18 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

that's too bad
you are not reading it right.

by Nestor on Nov 21, 2006 7:29 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

There is no way this Bruin offense will score
enough points on SC. The Bruins inability to run the ball will doom them in this game.

by cv on Nov 21, 2006 7:12 AM PST   0 recs

Pass the brown bag
No shortness of breath here.  I read your post "carefully".    

Your point about Hackett is very valid.  I do not believe our administration will do the same in this situation.  I just don't.  I hope I am wrong.  Of course, this presupposes that a much better replacement is hired.  The misery of compounding the error with another poor hire is a huge concern.  When was the last time our incredible alma mater hired a proven heavyweight head football coach?  I only know of two....Vermeil and Sanders.  Thats two over almost FIFTY years.  Its pathetic.  We can do so much better.  This does not inspire confidence.

In my opinion the odds that we get a "W" over sc is unlikely.  If we do, I will enjoy every second.  KD will be here next year.  If, as is likely, we get trashed again, my point is that THEN we'll see what DG et al do.  

   

by pnwbruin on Nov 21, 2006 7:19 AM PST   0 recs

A bad argument
First of all I don't know what will happen following December 2nd. All I am saying if we win on 12/2 it shouldn't be made out to some huge deal likening to winning a Rose Bowl. Because it's not. I will enjoy "every second" of it too, but we are not going to act like we won a NC. Our standards are just a little higher.

And your argument based on the notion "When was the last time our incredible alma mater hired a proven heavyweight head football coach?" is just a horrible argument because that's the kind of stale nonsense we used to hear before Howland came on board, based on the coaching hires made following Wooden.

If or when we are in market for a new football coach, I am pretty optimistic we won't see a repear of 2002.

by Nestor on Nov 21, 2006 7:33 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Another factor to consider....
is the PAC10 officiating. I have never seen a team get more close calls in their favor than 'SC. I don't know if it's just luck, conspiracy, whatever. They ALWAYS seem to get that critical, momentum-changing call at the right time. I expect this game to be close, within a touchdown or less, and I guarantee if it comes down to a key officiating call, don't expect it to go our way.

by godblesstyus95 on Nov 21, 2006 8:11 AM PST   0 recs

We can definitely beat SC
Having been to a few SC football games this season(My brother-in-law has season tickets and no one else wants to go with him...yeah, big shock when you marry into a family of nothing BUT Bruin alumni. I only go to these games in the interest of "Ucla's not playing at the Rose Bowl this week"), I can tell you that this SC team is by no means an offensive juggernaut, that JD Booty is a "good" QB but not even close to being a great QB, and that their team makes their fair share of boneheaded plays(Mostly Booty).

Watching defensive monsters like ASU or Cal hold their offense in check for most of the game really gives me the hope that our defense can absolutely do the same.  

I'm certain this game will certainly be lower scoring than the past few years. I'm just worried whether or not we have the firepower to put up more than a few field goals.

Nevertheless, I expect a win. Go Bruins!

by BruinTJ on Nov 21, 2006 9:09 AM PST   0 recs

Exactly
thank you.

the key is whether our offense can score 24-28 points. If we score 24+ points we win this game.

And after the entire season I am expecting KD to come up with 24+ points no matter what it takes. If we do that and hold on our own D, this will be a win.

by Nestor on Nov 21, 2006 9:12 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

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