Looking Forward

by Nestor on Apr 2, 2007 4:13 AM PDT in Basketball

Brian Dohn has a write up on the inconsistencies on UCLA offense. Dohn (who I have a lot of respect for) sort of falls in the line of conventional wisdom trying to look for a simplistic rationale explaining Saturday night’s loss:

As players searched for reasons a second straight appearance in the Final Four ended without a national title, reflections of an unreliable halfcourt offense were seen throughout the somber locker room after Saturday's 76-66 loss to Florida at the Georgia Dome.

"We definitely have to get better offensively," UCLA power forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute said. "We need to execute better, and try to learn how to play motion better. When we play offense, sometimes it looks like there's just one person with the ball and everybody else is standing. We have to learn how to move with the ball."

This is not something new for coach Ben Howland, who rebuilt the Bruins from ruins and took them to a second straight Final Four. But in his four years as UCLA's coach, the offense has remained frustrating to watch, and has yet to find consistency, or explosiveness.

The idea (or implication) that UCLA hasn’t had an consistent and explosive offense because of Howland’s coaching is kind of silly. That assertion doesn’t take into account the factor Howland inherited a team with not a lot of offensive talent and it also doesn’t take into factor that during his first three years at UCLA Howland’s didn’t get his hands on blue chip talents that went to schools like UNC, KU or Duke, because of the dilapidated conditions UCLA program. Howland made do with who he inherited from Lavin and who he was able to recruit in last four years.

Even then despite the common/lazy perception that UCLA offense hasn’t been efficient, it has been working out all right given the talent it has on its roster. Again this team was playing without 3 starters it lost to the NBA this past off-season. Despite having projects such as Mata and AA2 in the middle Bruins had a top-25 offense this past season (23rd ranked offense per Pomeroy ratings).

And I also think the production of our offense was all right given the fact that it was run by a first year starter playing his second year in college ball. Now could our players have executed better playing offense? Sure. They need to get better in executing their game plan. DC alludes to that fact in the same article:

"We need to really sit down and refocus of how we can get better as a team," UCLA point guard Darren Collison said. "There's so many things we can do better offensively, and defensively. We have to have better motion. We have to set better screens. That's something coach has been stressing, and something he will be stressing when the time comes."

As does AA:

"We all need to learn how to move without the ball a little bit better," Afflalo said. "We didn't even run any plays in the second half (against Florida).

"Coach put a lot of trust in us to run motion, which is simply move the ball, pass, screen and do some different things. And when we do drive, we can create for ourselves and others; and at times we became very stagnant in this game.

Now comments from AA after Saturday’s game were pretty interesting. Going into that game I thought for sure AA was gone. But after Saturday night, I am not sure any more. I think AA may genuinely consider coming back next season. From Pucin in the LAT (emphasis mine):

After Saturday's emotional loss, Afflalo seemed certain to consider playing his senior season. Most NBA draft prediction sites have Afflalo as no better than a late first-round pick and most have him in the second round.

The lure of playing with Love next season, of keeping intact a team that didn't have a senior, appeals to Afflalo's deep sense of responsibility.

"I have a lot of respect for my teammates, the coaching staff, the university that's done a lot for me," Afflalo said. "Sometimes you have to make sacrifices for some good things. Coming back next year is something I have to think about. But my sole purpose in coming to UCLA was to win a national championship. I'm still intent on doing that."

As I said before Bruins will be primed to have a very good season next year even if AA doesn’t come back. But if AA does come back we could be in store for something extremely special.

Now for our selfish reasons we all know what we want. But I think we should give this young man all the time (and room) he needs to make up his mind. He has earned it. I don’t think he owes any of us anything. He has already given us so much in restoring the pride and tradition of UCLA hoops. So whatever he decides he is going to have my all out support.

We have a lot to look forward to next season. Our players are going to reflect on what they need to work on this off-season. And I have no doubt under our coach’s guidance and leadership they are going to get that done.

GO BRUINS.

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We are going to be fine

If someone had told me that 4 years into Howland's tenure we would have 2 Final Fours, a National Title appearance, a few weeks ranked # 1, and back to back pre-season top 5 rankings, would anyone have believed it?

We really do more with less, and very soon, we are going to start doing more with more. Howland is a tremendous coach. Afflalo and Farmar brought the program back with toughness and talent, and threw in a lot of scoring. However, with all the success of Howland, he has yet to possess more than one great scorer. In fact, Afflalo this year is probably Howland's best scorer of his tenure. That will change. Next year, especially if Afflalo is back, we'll have Shipp, Afflalo, Love, Westbrook, Collison - and one or more could and should be great scorers. And if you don't think Prince Luc is going to improve next year, you're crazy. The Prince is going to deliver next year - offensively and defensively. And Mata - oh yea, the warrior is going to be back again.

Collison, Afflalo, Shipp, Mata/Luc/Love - that is awesome. Hello Westbrook off the bench (can you say 6th man of the year), Hello Aboya (basketball's next Adonyl Foyle, smart and great), Roll - just a junior - is going to be better, and Keefe - who played solid minutes in this tourney - will contribute. That's 10 people who I feel comfortable putting on the floor, and that doesn't include other incoming freshman or players like Dragovic and Ryan Wright.

We will be back in the top 5 preseason, and with Howland as coach, even with potential injuries and crazy officiating, it's hard to imagine this team as anything less than a # 3 seed in the tourney, and in reality, we're a #2 or a #1 seed, and that means we can realistically pack some scissors in April.

Back to Back Final Fours. Remarkable. And another one is coming soon, and UCLA is sooooo back. The only reason UCLA is getting such negative press is because people are so scared that UCLA might win another 10 titles. And guess what? They should be scared.

Lost in our "disappointing" season (yea right), is the incoming talent, and the fact that we once again have the record for most final four appearances. We have 17, and now hold the record over North Carolina, a team who couldn't get it done. That's something to be proud of.

Go Bruins!

by rfirpo on Apr 2, 2007 5:55 AM PDT 0 recs

Speaking of great scorers

Let's not forget our other highly touted freshman coming in next year. Chace Stanback led Fairfax to the California state championship, averaging 26 pts and 11 rebs along the way. We will be loaded next year whether or not AA comes back.

by Banner12 on Apr 2, 2007 7:03 AM PDT 0 recs

rumor that collison / shipp will test the waters

and AA is declaring on draftexpress

http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=1956

not so worried about afflalo. and we have wings that can take shipps place. Collison on the other hand is our only true pg (westbrook is good but doesn't understand the position). Collison has the most nba potential out of them due to his speed, and might be told by scouts that he'd be mid-1st round. Collison and shipp would really benefit from playing with love.

by stephons on Apr 2, 2007 7:23 AM PDT 0 recs

Weird.

Shipp - He shouldn't be testing any waters this year. A big for him (ask Afflalo), and I don't think there is any way he is coming out this year.

Collison - he could test - but again, I just don't see him coming out this year.

Afflalo - I still think it's a MAYBE he's coming out; I do not think it is for sure, especially if he is only a second rounder.

Final Thoughts

(1) Assuming all of the above are really considering coming out this year, even knowing they are likely second rounders, does this worry anyone here on BN about the players' relationships with Ben Howland? I know this happens to every team who makes the final four (players think their stock is as high as it will ever be so attempt to declare), but if players like Shipp consider declaring, that worries me. I am sure I am overreacting.

by rfirpo on Apr 2, 2007 9:01 AM PDT up 0 recs

shipp played a good game

in front of the nation. He was hitting pull up shots, driving, dunking, etc. He was on a team that made the final four. So his stock is high. However, I think if this report is true then he's probably putting his name out there for his junior or senior year. He wants to know what to work on and make some contacts in the NBA most likely.

I'm more worried about collison - there definitely could be some teams that would love his speed / fiesty on-ball defense. If he starts talking to NBA people, they might say he is definitely 1st round material. He can definitely work on things, and sounded like he'd come back after the game.

Afflalo - could come back but in terms of accolades, he's 1st team all american, and pac 10 POY. He could work on his athleticism and ball handling so that he could be seen as a combo guard in the NBA.

As far as howland not getting along with them, I've seen nothing that would make this seem true (maybe with collison, but even that is a reach).

by stephons on Apr 2, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up 0 recs

I am pretty sure

You are over reacting in terms of players and Howland's relationship. I wouldn't trust the nonsense coming out of that site. Those are all rumors without any good sources.

by bluestreet on Apr 2, 2007 11:18 AM PDT up 0 recs

Well

I usually agree 100% with Nestor, but it is not "lazy" to criticize the offense. You can't rely on stats, you have to actually watch how the offense performs. The halfcourt offense is not good. When they are in motion, the movement away from the ball, frankly, usually sucks. The players aren't making it up, it's true and I've been saying it basically for four years. I was willing to give some slack until now because of what Howland was dealing with, but at this point it is clear that our offensive system in general is not good.

Don't get me wrong, Howland is a near-God in my book, but he is human and not beyond criticism. When you have a guy like Collison as your point guard it is inexcusable not to push the ball more and try to find easier, open looks. We grind away in the halfcourt with an pretty inept system, usually waiting until 10 seconds left and going one on one into the teeth of the defense or jacking up a shot with pressure in our face. I mean, it's been happening since Howland got here.

I really, really hope that next year Howland opens things up considerably with Love's outlet passing and Collison at the point. I'm not saying play reckless, I'm saying put pressure on the opposing team's defense. It doesn't mean you still can't play rock solid defense on your own end.

And if I have to watch the high-friggin' screen with Mata ever again I'm gonna puke.

by paulucla on Apr 2, 2007 8:27 AM PDT 0 recs

Disagree

The problem with our halfcourt offense is that we have nobody who is a threat to score in the low post -- except when the guards weave through traffic and dish the ball off for an uncontested dunk.

No, Howland is not above criticism, but it seems clear to me that this weakness in our offense is a result of personnel, not coaching. If Love proves that he can score consistently in the paint next year yet our halfcourt offense is still stagnant, then I'll reassess.

by vanaaron on Apr 2, 2007 8:55 AM PDT up 0 recs

In addition

Not only do we not have a threat in the low post, but over the past two years we have a tendency (I would say about 90% of the time) to run the shot clock down to zero and then we have to depends on DC (last year it was Farmar) or AA to jack up a shot. Howland needs to give the green light to folks like Shipp and ESPECIALLY Michael Roll to shoot when they're comfortable. I don't know how many times I've seen Shipp drive in only to pull back out and give the ball up. I'm not saying he should look to score all the time but he should look to score more often. And why aren't we setting up picks (Rip Hamilton style) for Roll? Isn't that why we recruited him in the first place?

by diehardbruin on Apr 2, 2007 10:29 AM PDT up 0 recs

Only one problem

Moving without the ball is a skill, the same as shooting, driving, defending, etc. From what Ive seen, Roll thus far doesnt make the precise speedy cuts that are necessary for him to be able to free himself off of picks ala Rip Hamilton and Reggie Miller. This doesnt mean that he cant develop this ability, but he will have to be able to hit his spots faster if he wants to be utilized in that role.

by Tydides on Apr 2, 2007 12:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

I hope you're right

and I hope that Roll doesn't turn into another Brandon Lloyd.

by diehardbruin on Apr 2, 2007 9:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

The name sounds familiar

Who is he and when did he play for UCLA ?

by Htse005 on Apr 2, 2007 10:20 PM PDT up 0 recs

We'll be fine.....

Yes, we at times struggle offensively. However, Howland is getting every ounce of what he can from the personnel he currently has. Our 1-3 positions as a whole is arguably the best in that nation. However, our roster is flawed in that we do not have a legitimate low post option/threat. We do not have a single guy at this time on our roster that you can dump the ball inside to for a score or run your offense through on a consistent basis. Florida did not guard Luc or Mata because they are not legitimate threats to score in the post. We couldn't even bring their Bigs out of the paint to free up driving lanes because our Bigs are also not threats to hit the perimeter shot. I was hoping that Luc would have developed this for this year but he clearly needs to work on that aspect of his game in the off-season which I'm sure he will. That is why we are left with Collison or Afflalo trying to create a shot with the shot clock running out. Howland knows this and he has tried to remedy this in the past. He recruited Bigs like Horford, Noah, Thompson, etc. out of high school as well as Keating broached the subject on possibly graduating early to Love. I'm trying hard not to place so much expectation on Love next year which is really difficult as a fan. However, when Howland quotes how Love could have started for us as a HS Freshman, I believe him. Having seen him play on multiple occasions, he would be an upgrade over our lost post options currently. Not only would he provide the low post threat but his ability to pass the ball will create a lot more opportunities for others as well as provide better spacing on the floor. We all saw how deadly a balanced squad can hurt you. I expect us to push the ball more next year with the addition of Love & his outlet passes. I truly believe that Howland has been waiting to unleash this team but the personnel was not in place yet. All our guys will improve their games and we'll be in the thick of things next year once again. P.S. I don't expect Collison or Shipp to put their names into the draft. I believe they are just testing the waters to obtain feedback from NBA scouts on what they need to improve on/develop in their games. It would be a mistake for both of them to declare IMO. As for Afflalo, I hope he comes back but no Bruin fan can ask him for anything more. He brought this program back to elite status. Although I believe he would benefit from Love's presence, I thank you and will support one of my all-time favorite Bruins in whatever you do.

by BlueReign on Apr 2, 2007 9:53 AM PDT up 0 recs

I think it's a lot simpler

The lack of a low post threat means that when the ball goes in, which is rarely, it almost never comes back out. Feeding the post and then kicking back out to the perimeter is one of the easiest ways to initiate the offense and create defensive breakdowns. I hope that starting with Love, we will be able to consistently have legitimate low post offensive options in the future, so that we can add high-low action to the motion. We do a great job rotating our shooters on the perimeter, which will prove absolutely devastating if the defense has to focus on a guy in the blocks.

by Tydides on Apr 2, 2007 12:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

Simpler approach

Through sports history there have always been instances where one team seems to always have a particular teams number when they play them. Why?? Dont know, but it happens.

To mention a couple of the more famous ones.

Celtics - Lakers
Yankees - Boston

Of course these teams eventually overcame the issue but it took a lot of years to do it. It did not always seem to be who had the better talent or record.

I just think this group of Florida players (even the assbag Noah) have our number. Yes, the refs might have affected the outcome but we also played poorly.

Sometimes it's just that simple.

I'm looking forward to next year with the great freshman coming in (and the rest of I think our offense will get tinkered with to capitalize on those freshman strengths.

GO BRUINS!!!

by artybruin on Apr 2, 2007 9:42 AM PDT 0 recs

I just hope...

...that we're not the Buffalo Bills...

by tasser10 on Apr 2, 2007 1:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

Nah ...

We have 11 banners. UNC won what 3 titles in 30 years choking again and again in all those Final4s.

We are no where close to UNC's record of winning just 3 titles out 16 Final 4s.

We are fine.

by bluestreet on Apr 2, 2007 1:53 PM PDT up 0 recs

I know

I meant from now on, and it was just a response to the previous post trying to compare us to those professional team rivalries. It's different in college, with the ever-changing lineups.

by tasser10 on Apr 2, 2007 2:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

Being the Bills wouldn't be so bad...

because it would have meant that we made it to the finals.

by bornagainbruin on Apr 2, 2007 3:14 PM PDT up 0 recs

Uhh?

I'd rather win in the finals! Let's be the 49ers at least. Or Cowboys even (yuk)...as long as it's a title. I would hope that if we got to the finals four times we'd at least win one!

by tasser10 on Apr 3, 2007 6:41 AM PDT up 0 recs

The Draft

So far, no agents involved, so that is good. But we could lose one, two, or all three. That's reality. Naturally, all of these guys want to play in the NBA. Collison is the one with the great speed, and would probably go the highest. Unfortunately, he would be the toughest to replace. We could go from the team without a center to the team without a point guard. But, hey, why worry? Nothing fans can do about this stuff. Howland has to handle these things. And he will.

by Oldguy on Apr 2, 2007 9:51 AM PDT 0 recs

Players leaving

Let's keep in mind the parental situation, which, as I understand it, for all three of these kids, is reasonably strong. In the case of DC, you have to believe his parents see the big picture, and will advise him accordingly. I would say they tell him one more year at least. AA is 50-50. His draft status has been hurt, no question about it. He is also such a competitor, he might decide to stick around, if he feels that Love would make a difference next year toward winning it all. JS, I believe his parents also see the big picture as do DC's. If he goes, he is on his own. He is just coming back still from the hip issue, and is finally expanding his game. Another year of performance at UCLA should boost his stock in the NBA. Of all the players, he knows, thru his family, the most of "what to do now".
Bill

BillSouthBay

by BillSouthBay on Apr 2, 2007 10:08 AM PDT 0 recs

NBA prospects

There no first-rounders on our roster right now. Afflalo might sneak in at the end of the first with stellar workouts, but I don't think NBA teams would take a chance on a 6'5 shooting guard who doesn't play above the rim. Afflalo is athletic but he's not explosive. Maybe he is, and just didn't get a chance to exhibit it as was the case with Farmar last year, but NBA teams look for different things in an off-guard than they do a point-guard. Clearly, there are holes in Afflalo offensive game that would keep him out of the first-round and guaranteed money. This isn't to say that Afflalo can't be a lottery pick. Brandon Roy came back for his senior year and turned himself into a lottery pick and the likely Rookie of the Year. Afflalo could be best served to polish his game and prove his athleticism in what will probably be a more offensive-minded UCLA team next year with K-Love and Stanback coming in. Collison is NOT an NBA point guard yet. He's as quick as Tony Parker but isn't as strong driving to the bucket nor his jumper as consistent. The NBA is an offense-first league played by the best athletes in the world. Quick players who have to defend to earn a paycheck are dime a dozen there. Collison needs to show that he can score when he wants to while being able to control the game. Shipp wants to think that he's NBA-ready, but undersized 3's don't really catch the scouts' eyes even if they do have a knack at finding a way to score points. With K-Love coming in next year, the Bruins have a chance of demonstrating their ability to score in many different ways which will only help everyone's pro stock.

by ishXdavid on Apr 2, 2007 10:16 AM PDT 0 recs

Positive Outlook from the AP Newswire

Some feelgood reading for the rest of the afternoon: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news?slug=ap-uclawrapup&prov=ap&type=lgns

by diehardbruin on Apr 2, 2007 10:58 AM PDT 0 recs

That was nice. good find.

by rfirpo on Apr 2, 2007 12:11 PM PDT up 0 recs

Afflalo's Stock

Afflalo had horrible foul trouble and played hardly at all against Florida. He DID score 17 points in about a 5 minute span to keep my hopes up until about the two minute mark. Didn't that help him a bit in the scout's eyes?

Boisebruin

by boisebruin on Apr 2, 2007 1:37 PM PDT 0 recs

Nope*

by bluestreet on Apr 2, 2007 1:52 PM PDT up 0 recs

Leaving early

I just heard Shipp, DC, and AA are all leaving for the NBA. Someone please tell me that's not true.

by dbentonychs on Apr 2, 2007 2:35 PM PDT 0 recs

not quite true

I think Shipp and DC will do what AA did last year, put their name in the draft to test the waters without hiring an agent in order to maintain their eligibility. As for AA, I am not sure, it'll depend on what he hears about his draft stock, his family and his own motivation. Regardless, I am not worried. If they leave, others will come, maybe not tomorrow, but definitely soon.

by tasser10 on Apr 2, 2007 2:43 PM PDT up 0 recs

AA's elgibility

I heard through multiple people in Atlanta that if AA declares for the draft, then he loses his last year of elgibility. He is unable to withdraw his name, because he withdrew it last year. Apparently, you can only test the waters once. Does anyone know if this is true?

by 98bruin on Apr 2, 2007 2:58 PM PDT 0 recs

Yes

Only one "test" allowed per person without hiring an agent.

by BlueReign on Apr 2, 2007 3:00 PM PDT up 0 recs

Draft

Does anybody here really think Collison and Shipp can compete at the NBA level right now?

by markb on Apr 2, 2007 3:22 PM PDT 0 recs

More Draft

If Farmar can't get off the Lakers' bench, prospects are not that great for the others, especially Shipp and Afflalo, who are "tweeners" in size, to play much in their first years, even if they have dynamite workouts for the pros, which is no certainty. So, even if signed, it will not be for big money. But anyway, if Howland suddenly had three scholarships to work with, I think he would know what to do with them.

by Oldguy on Apr 2, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up 0 recs

some more thoughts on Arron.

After Florida beat us for the second year in a row, I was most disappointed for Arron. I couldn't be more proud that he's on our team.

If he was at any other university, including the other handful of top-notch programs, he'd get to have his number retired. First Team AP All-America, conference POY, Two Final Fours. Step out of our UCLA selves for a second and think about how tough that is to do.

But he knows better than any of us what defines greatness at UCLA. And that he wants to get that not just for himself, or just his team, but also for "The University.," that says so much about him. We the fans have been the lucky ones.

Also, a note on his draft stock.
If there's one thing I think he could improve on for both his game and his draft stock, whether it's this year or next, it's his hops. I'm sure there are some plyometric excercises he can do to get some more bounce in his step. A little more elevation in his game will go a long way.

by ursa on Apr 2, 2007 6:07 PM PDT 0 recs

maybe

A LOT more elevation. At 6'5 he needs to be able to leap with the best of them to make it at the next level. Even his jump shot isn't as smooth as it should be to go up against more athletic and longer defenders. He doesn't release the ball at the peak of his jump and kind of holds it there. He's been getting away with it all his life and has made quite the career for himself, but defenders in the NBA will make his life hell if he doesn't think he has to make the adjustment. He doesn't have the hitch that Collison has, but that's another story for another time. Collison's going to have to make the adjustment if he wants to make it at the next level.

by ishXdavid on Apr 4, 2007 2:03 PM PDT up 0 recs