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Around SBN: Race to the Roses & BCS Bowl Predictions

Crunch Time: Oregon on the Road

The loss to USC was very disappointing.  We suffered injuries at the wrong time, lost our composure, and lost the kind of game at home which could affect our seeding in the NCAA Tournament.  A tough afternoon, especially when it was our only game of the week.  We had all week to get ready, and instead of slamming the door on USC and ending their post-season dreams, we lost to the then-9th best team in the conference and sent our rival into disgusting revelry.  Painful.  Oh, and O.J. Mayo threw the ball in the air after the game like he just won the National Title.

As Ben Howland said after the game, the USC game hurt-and it needed to hurt because it forces you to get better and reminds you how much you care.  However, at some point we need to look forward.  I think a good time to start looking forward is the day before a game at Oregon.  That is a Big Game.

Looking forward then, here are some notes and comments I've been thinking about.

(1) Russell Westbrook.  

This kid has had a break-out season, and has turned into one of our key players.  He is our most athletic guy, one of our best defenders (if not the best), and has been a consistent scorer.  Forget that he has been coming off the bench--there is a case to be made that he is our most important guy.

Unfortunately, Westbrook has now suffered 1 and a half tough games in a row.  The first half against Washington St. was Westbrook at his best.  He hit mid-range jumpers like they were lay-ups, and played superb defense.  However, his second half against WSU was VERY poor--on offense and defense--and that carried over to USC.  I do not think it is a coincidence that WSU's second-half performance and USC's win coincided with Westbrook's seriously poor play.  In fact, I think it shows just how important he has become.

No longer is Westbrook just a surprising benefit, unnecessary, but always welcome.  No, the last two games show that he is now necessary.  We need him and depend on him.  We missed his mid-range jumper and rim-attacking offense last game, and we missed his defensive prowess the last game-and-a-half.  Can you blame a sophomore for a couple bad games?  No.  But make no mistake about it, we need him to start playing better.  He is now necessary to our success.

Let's hope Oregon sees Westbrook at his best.

(2) Mata

His concussion is too bad.  He is a really tough player, and I hate to see him hurting.  In a lot of ways he is the heart and soul of our team-and I hope he feels better.

That said, I think Mata has become somewhat of a non-factor--And I don't like it.  Putting aside his injury last week, Mata simply hasn't been getting the quality minutes of the past.  During the first 9 games of the season, Mata averaged 23.22 minutes per game, and 5.11 points.  Not enormous production, but important.  During the last 8 games, however, Mata has averaged just 13.12 minutes per game, and only 2 points per game.  Down by half.  To me this is interesting, and not a positive development.

Now, it is not surprising to see Mata's minutes down this year.  Kevin Love's emergence means less time for Mata, and rightfully so (in part).  However, in a year where we have suffered key injuries, it is surprising to see Mata so (relatively) out-of-the-loop at this point.  You'd think that Howland would be sucking more minutes out of Mata, but in fact, his minutes are diminishing.

In my opinion, Mata needs to get more minutes.  We need our guys to be ready, and Mata can play great defense, and at times, has shown an ability to contribute limited scoring.  However, if Mata stays on the bench, he will lose his ability to play at a high level.  I've found his performances of late to be only so-so, but I'm not sure that is his fault.  I think maybe some of that is his reduced playing time, meaning he is not in the flow and as ready to contribute.  

Bottom line-I'd like to see Mata get more minutes so that he will feel like he is in the flow again.  Then, when we need Mata-he will be ready to deliver.

(3) Keefe, Stanback, Dragovic

I believe one of these players needs to step up and start averaging at least 10 minutes per game.  We need that extra player, sans Roll, who can contribute.  It is likely that Keefe will be the guy, but any of the three will do.  Keefe's shot looks really good, and he plays the smartest.  Dragovic isn't scared to shoot (which I like), but he just isn't knocking them down, and we know Ben is suspicious of his defense.  And Stanback-still a question mark.  His body is still getting used to D-1 basketball, but he has an upside.  I don't care who steps up, but it's time someone did.

Finally,

(4) Finishing off the First Half of the Pac-10 Strong is a MUST

We have four very difficult games coming up: Oregon, Oregon St, Arizona St., and Arizona.  Aside from Oregon St., all the games are potential losses, and all the games are very important.

I never thought we'd go undefeated in the Pac-10, and in fact, I think the best anyone could legitimately hope for is 16-2 (and that is asking a lot).  Though keeping conference losses to 2 will be extraordinarily difficult, it is possible.  But it needs to start with us finishing off the first-half of the conference season with only 1 loss--which means we need to win our next four.  It sucks losing to SC at home--but if we can win the next four, we will be in great shape.

It starts with Oregon on the road.  An incredibly difficult game, but one that is win-able.  Howland doesn't lose two games in a row very often, and the players will all remember Brooks hitting the game winning shot last year.  Here's to hoping that we can ride those setbacks to victory tomorrow night, and cleanse ourselves of the USC embarrassment.

Go Bruins.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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Keefe
Keefe has been getting the velvet glove treatment at BN since day one. Post game talk about him setting "monster picks" and grabbing "tremendous rebounds" are wearing thin. This guy is a McDonald's All American and that's a big deal. Yet he hasn't been able to average even 10 minutes a game. This is a crucial time for him. It appears he will finally get the oppurtunity to step up and prove himself. I am rooting for him.
Boisebruin

by boisebruin on Jan 23, 2008 12:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to have an opinion of him
either way when he doesn't play meaningful minutes. His progress back has been encouraging though, especially considering he thought he was going to redshirt this year.

by Tydides on Jan 23, 2008 12:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

McDonald's All American
Had Keefe already signed with UCLA before he was named an All American? I feel like, a lot of times, these players get the All American award partly because of the school to which they committed (i.e. the better the basketball program, the higher they are regarded...)

by tasser10 on Jan 24, 2008 8:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Keefe committed as a HS Junior
so yes, he was already signed.

by Tydides on Jan 24, 2008 8:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not technically signed of course
Just the non-binding verbal commitment.

by Tydides on Jan 24, 2008 8:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well this is his chance to shine
and get valuable experience that will be priceless in the tournament.

by tasser10 on Jan 24, 2008 8:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Mata
I remember reading that Lorenzo pulled a groin muscle a few weeks ago and that it was one of those injuries that can linger for awhile.  It seems like the reduction of his playing time coincided with that injury and it also seems like he hasn't played as well since then.  It would certainly be useful to have him out there at full strength.  

by bruin7982 on Jan 23, 2008 1:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Mata will play more
But only when we go against teams that have two low posts (like Stanford and Washington). Otherwise, he can only play the minutes that Love doesn't play becauase Love is our most important and indispensable player (which is the only place where I disagree with rfirpo's post).

by BruinsRule on Jan 23, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I agree, Mata can't take minutes from Love
But why can't he be on the floor with Love.  Couldn't he take some minutes from Aboya.  In all honesty, I wonder whether Mata or Aboya is the better player.  Aboya starts, and Aboya is getting more minutes lately.  But I wonder who I'd rather have on the floor.

In theory, I like Aboya for the potential.  But in reality, I think I prefer Mata.

by rfirpo on Jan 23, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Like Westbrook, who they can sub for is the key
Westbrook comes off the bench because he can play either the one or two spot.  

Similar with Mata, he shouldn't start as he is really the only other center we have, and he can play the four as well.  Thus, he comes off the bench and doesn't start.

Aboya is purely a four/PF.

by Free the 16 on Jan 23, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

While all Pac10 road games are tough
We should sweep in Oregon...IF we don't play imbecilic ball like we did against SC.

And that means passing the ball into Love, for whom neither Oregon team has an answer.

The Bruin players has to recognize this -- they must get Love involved.

by bluegold on Jan 23, 2008 3:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Going to be a tough match-up for us
Especially since we are so depleated in the back court.  Plus Oregon is always a tough place to play, with the Love situation, it will be even more so.

by Free the 16 on Jan 23, 2008 4:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Concussions
Until about 2 years ago, I had never had a concussion.  Then some goon decided that we were playing full contact basketball when I was in mid lay-up full extension.  The first part of my body that hit the ground was the back of my head.
The effects lingered for a long time.  I have a lot of respect for people who can come back from the blows to the head.  I'm sure that the medical staff will be right on top of the guys with their evaluations.
Bob O. (Signholder #3)

by TuneMan7 on Jan 23, 2008 4:48 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

If we are true contenders for the #1 seed
then this is the type of game we need to win.  A #1 seed should not lose back to back games, and should be able to take care of any team on the road, whose ranking is less than #15.  The atomsphere should inspire a team that is a true contender.

by popopapa on Jan 24, 2008 1:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with this.
Unfortunately, with Prince Luc and Mata potentially inactive, I think this could be anybody's game.

by rfirpo on Jan 24, 2008 1:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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