Another look at Texas A&M

by bruinhoo on Mar 21, 2008 3:06 PM PDT

Bumped. Thanks again to hoo for the great post. Makes dealing w flight delays (snow storm in Chicago?) easier. GO BRUINS. -N

Another game, and another installment of my look through the numbers of our upcoming tournament opponent. Today, Texas A&M. Unlike last night's opponent, I imagine that A&M will keep us all focused on the game at hand.

Texas A&M currently has a 25-10 record (24-10 against D-1). The team finished 6th in the Big XII's regular season, and defeated Iowa State and Kansas State in the Big XII tourney, before losing to Kansas by a score of 77-71. A&M received an at-large NCAA bid as the West's #9 seed, and defeated BYU last night to advance to Saturday's game with UCLA.

UCLA and Texas A&M have faced three common opponents: Arizona, Texas, and Washington. A&M split its season series with Texas, winning at home, 80-63 while losing in Austin by a 77-50 score. They defeated Washington by 14 points at Madison Square Garden in November, and lost to Arizona by 11 points in Tuscon in early December. Entering the tournament, A&M had played 12 games against other teams that made the tourney, with a 5-7 record in such games.

A&M entered the tournament on a cold streak of sorts, having lost 6 of its final 10 games. 4 of those losses came against NCAA tournament teams, including a loss at Texas, and 2 losses to Kansas. 2 of the team's wins in that span came against tourney teams; @ Baylor, and Kansas State at the Big XII tourney. While the regular season did not end well for A&M, they have rebounded in the postseason, having first advanced to the Big XII semifinals, and then defeating BYU in the first round of the NCAA's.

For a look at the ratings:
RPI UCLA: #4; A&M: #41
Pomeroy rating: UCLA: #2; A&M: #17
Sagarin rating: UCLA: #3; A&M: #23

You may notice a couple of things about the ratings:

Texas A&M's ratings in the RPI greatly differ from the computer ratings derived by Pomeroy and Sagarin. A&M is one of the extreme examples of how such ratings differ (Kansas State differs in a similar manner, while Vanderbilt has an equal, but opposite difference in the ratings). Other than looking to last night's K-State/SC game, I am not sure of what, if any correlation exists between the spread between RPI and other ratings and tourney success (whether RPI or Pomeroy/Sagarin is the more accurate predictor in such circumstances).
Under the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings, A&M is fairly closely matched to UCLA, particularly for a "1-9" matchup (its computer profile compares to many 5 and 6 seeds). While it has been said that UCLA has the easiest path to San Antonio (and Duke's performance as the West's #2 team provides little challenge to the notion), it also has the toughest second-round game looming of the #1 seeds.

While the RPI may say otherwise, Texas A&M is prospectively the best team that is poised to play a #1 seed in the first weekend of the tournament. UNC has a chance of playing a similarly-ranked Indiana team (if both make it through today's games) on Sunday, though IU's profile must be considered in light of the Kelvin Sampson affair, and the disruption (and inconsistent play) surrounding the program after his dismissal.

There is no perfect analogue in the Pac-10 for A&M's computer profile, in regards to efficiency. The best comparison in that respect is Southern Cal, but with a slightly more efficient offense, playing at a slower pace.

As I did for the Miss Valley game, I will break down the efficiency stats.

Texas A&M

Offense: 114.9 points/100 possessions (#33 in D-1)
Defense: 88.2 points/100 possessions (#15 in D-1)
Pace: 63.5 possessions/40 minutes

UCLA

Offense: 120.2/100 possessions (#6)
Defense: 82.8/100 possessions (#3)
Pace: 65.6 possessions/40 minutes

For more on the Aggies read on after the jump ...

Texas A&M tends to play at a somewhat slower pace than does UCLA - a pace that bears some resemblance to that of Arizona State, though with a greater efficiency.

Using the above efficiency measures, together with the average pace of the two teams' play, the average game score of each team, based upon an equal schedule composed of average Division 1 teams would be:

UCLA: 79-54
Texas A&M: 73-56

The first thought that jumps out is: wow, that looks a lot closer that the MVSU scores from the start of the week. Next is the realization that this looks to be quite a tight game; to me, this looks more like a 2-7, or even a 3-6 matchup than the 1-9 that it in fact is. Both teams feature top-level defenses; while UCLA's offense is statistically superior, A&M's is certainly good enough to take advantage of any openings that our defense may give. Pomeroy projects a 7-point UCLA win, which sounds reasonable to me. While this is a game that we should win, it is also a game that we could very well lose if the team does not come out right.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Comments

This is great

Thanks for this hoo.

The problem I have with all of these ratings, is that they are only comparable within a conference. It is impossible to compare any team's rating to that of a team from another conference. They play completely different teams, so it is statistically not a valid comparison since there is no control. But it's the best we've got, aside from the subjective comparison based on matchups.

I think this is exactly the type of team that gives UCLA headaches. If they hit some shots, they are going to be very tough to beat. Howland will have our boys prepared.

by tasser10 on Mar 21, 2008 12:34 PM PDT reply actions

having seen last nite's action "live"

it sure seemed like neither of the putative second rounders for the Bruins looked like much. A & M spent the entire first half content to work the perimeter and "live or die" by the 3 pointer, which changed only for a short time at the outset of the second half. Moreover, though they had the team quickness to shadow BYU's bunch on offense, they were constantly unable to answer Plaisted's rote twist and hook to the basket, and never ever mustered anything in the way of a transition game. Yeah its only one game, but the Aggies sure didn't show much, and they looked very little like the aggressively fast bunch that taxed (but failed to best)last year's Bruin squad in the Wooden Classic.

As an aside, sure was glad to see KLove in person for a game. It seems almost impossible to fathom that he'll stick around for more years. Mrs. LOST said "I've never seen a more complete College player." She was just a little too young to remember Bonespur Bill.

The Mad Bruin

by lostnacfgop on Mar 21, 2008 4:28 PM PDT reply actions

They

beat a pretty good team in BYU...there gunna bring everything they've got tomorrow..a team that beats k state, loses to ku by 7 then wins there next game in march is by no means a pushover in my book.

Although I'd love to see a spanking, I'm having a hard time believing that this team will roll over and die. The big 12 has been impressive thus far in the tourney, and I certainly think we'll be given a bit of a challenge tomorrow.

I'm also fully expecting a strong statement from our boys as well though...Go Bruins!

O.A.

by Ollie on Mar 21, 2008 10:43 PM PDT reply actions

They are Tough

They put up a hell of a fight against Kansas in the Big-12 tourney, and outrebounded them. They do not go away, ever.

They have something to prove, and the frontcourt game to do it.

Our warriors are going to have their hands full with these guys, I'll bet. They are surely the best 9-seed in the tournament, I think.

Love My Bruins

by Bruingirl83 on Mar 22, 2008 6:38 AM PDT reply actions

Lots of Talk

Lots of talk about their toughness and size (deservedly so). Good thing we had the furd and the twins to play against three times this year. The experience should serve us well against A&M.

W/ Luc, AA and JK as 4s, and KL and Lorenzo as 5s, we should be able to match up well against them. Nevertheless, it's gonna be tough. But if we play like we can, it'll be a good game and hopefully one w/ a favorable outcome.

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 22, 2008 8:41 AM PDT reply actions