A Quick Memo For The Westbrooks: The Blake Griffin Analysis

by Nestor on Apr 14, 2008 4:12 AM PDT in Basketball Comment 19 comments

We have already expressed our appreciation for RW (and DC) no matter what he decides to do this off season. As I mentioned I will probably throw up a similar post for KL sometime in the near future. I think it is all but a done deal that KL and DC are gone. However, among these three kids if there is one who might be realistically thinking about coming back in terms of upping his NBA stocks by returning for another year (translating into millions of extra dollars) it is RW. Thayer Evans of the New York Times last week posted a great article zeroing on RW and made a case on why someone like him could benefit from not jumping into the NBA draft this season:

The 6-foot-3, 189-pound Westbrook's season has been highlighted by his gliding dunks over defenders that are etched in YouTube lore, his crafty offensive rebounding and his defensive prowess, which earned him defensive player of the year honors in the Pacific-10 Conference.

Despite being a potential lottery pick in the N.B.A. draft on June 26, he could be the prime example of a legitimate N.B.A. prospect returning to college next season. That is because the top of this year's draft is likely to be dominated by one of college basketball's finest freshman classes in recent years and the current high school senior class, which would be eligible for the 2009 draft, is considered to lack the skilled elite big men who are often top choices.

Two freshmen -- Kansas State forward Michael Beasley and Memphis point guard Derrick Rose -- are expected to be the first two players selected in this year's draft.

At least seven other freshmen could also be selected in the lottery, which consists of the first 14 picks. Underclassmen have until April 27 to declare for the draft and until June 16 to withdraw.

"It's deep," Chad Ford, a draft analyst for ESPN.com, said of this year's draft class in a telephone interview. "I don't think it's the deepest, but it's deep."

That hurts the value of Westbrook and others who could be selected higher if they return to college and enter the 2009 draft.

"There's a little more room to move up in next year's draft," U.C.L.A. Coach Ben Howland said. "The exceptional freshmen in this year's class take away from a couple of guys leaving."

The article quoting Ford went on to point out why it could be especially beneficial to RW to come back for another season:

It could be to Westbrook's advantage if he returned to U.C.L.A. next season and the junior point guard Darren Collison turned pro this year, as some draft experts have speculated. That situation would give Westbrook a better opportunity to show that he can play point guard, his likely position in the N.B.A.

"It probably would benefit his stock some," Ford said of Westbrook. "He could be a guy that's projected high this year, but he'll go later in the draft in part because teams still aren't 100 percent sure whether he'll be a point guard or not."

There is something else RW needs to carefully consider and it is the parameters of the NBA K he will be looking at. If RW finds himself in a situation in which he is projected as a top-20 pick, I will totally understand if he decides to leave UCLA for financial considerations.

However, he will need to also weigh the consideration that even if he is taken as a top-20 pick, he will probably viewed as a "project" in the NBA where he will be on the bench for at least 2-3 seasons. RW's future in the NBA will come at the pg position, and since he doesn't have a full season worth of experience at that position, he will probably be developed at that position from the bench. And because of that if RW goes in now although he will get the rookie K within the NBA salary guidelines, he may not have a lot of leverage when time is up in his first K and negotiations come up for his second K. That's where the big money comes from in the NBA.

And it's a factor that let Oklahoma's Blake Griffin, who was projected as a first round pick in this year's draft to come back for another season. Jenni Carlson from the Oklahoman reported on the thoughts/analysis Griffin went through before reaching his decision to come back for another season despite being projected as a top first round pick in this year's draft:

Griffin understood the opportunity that awaited him. He would've lived a dream. He would've been a lottery pick. He would've had a million-dollar payday.

And yet, he walked away.

How is that possible?

"It was definitely tough," Griffin said. "Most college basketball players, their dream their whole lives is to play in the NBA. That is something that's hard to turn down.

"But at the same time, I know I wouldn't be content with just going to the NBA."

Griffin wants to play.

Right away, too. No sitting the pine. No biding his time. Griffin wants to go to the league and make it impossible for teams to leave him on the bench.

He's seen the cautionary tales, guys like Gerald Green, who passed on an opportunity to play at Oklahoma State and jumped right from high school to the NBA. Green played for three teams in three seasons before being waived by Houston early last month.

See right there Grifin was already thinking ahead of the second NBA K and he made his decision on the calculation that if he goes to the league as a high draft pick, NBA teams will have no choice to give him a lot of playing time and get the most out of their investment. More from that same article:

A lottery pick is a lottery pick," he said, "but there's a huge difference between going No. 10 or 8 or 7 and going No. 1, 2 or 3."

The difference is in the dollars.

Those top few picks receive such big contracts that their teams want to play them to get the most out of their investment.

FYI: The mock draft on nbadraft.net already has Griffin as the No. 1 overall pick next year.

I imagine those are the kind of calculations and analysis RW and their folks will be going through in the coming days. At the end of the day if they conclude that RW needs to go now and take the guaranteed K because of the financial situation, then I will totally understand. However, at the same time, I think we can assume that Coach Howland and other savvy basketball personnel who will be advising them through this process, will present the Blake Griffin argument to them, and have them consider what coming back another season with a roster featuring the Fab-4 and with RW running the show (along with hopefully a veteran core of LRMAM, JK and AA2) could have the potential of putting together another fun Ben Ball season, that would potentially rocket RW to a top-5 lottery pick.

So even though we have already said our public goodbye and appreciation for RW, we just want to make sure these considerations are out there in public. We are going to be behind him one way or another. We just want to make sure he has the facts in front of him before making an informed decision. Just something to chew on for the Westbrooks in the comings days. Carry on.

GO BRUINS.

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Questions

The post, article and analysis are all right on the money. The example that comes to my mind is Brandon Roy, who played at least one extra year and became ROY and moved very smoothly into being a franchise player. There are probably plenty of other examples out there. But I'm not sure about the idea that RW will definitely be a PG in the NBA. I know there are a lot of big SGs (and a fair number of big PGs) in the NBA, but with his athleticism, jump shot, and defense I don't see why RW wouldn't be an SG, which might be more natural to him. Roy and AA are examples. I suppose RW could be a JF-like PG, but JF was always a PG. Earl Watson is worth considering (not an RW-like scorer_and the Baron Davis-Monte Ellis team is interesting, and there are a lot of permutations. At any rate, if RW returns and plays with Jrue, MRoll, Shipp, and the other freshman guards he could be a dominant player next year.

My other question: I know most of the Nationites are Laker fans, and shifting smoothly from the Final Four to the NBA playoffs now. But some of us are poor, suffering Clipper fans, which is relevant here because of figuring out the lottery pick. On a team with Brand and Kaman, is there any reason to take Kevin Love? Is Westbrook good enough to take at #5? Should the Clippers take OJ Mayo? Just asking for a little help from the extremely knowledgable and thoughtful hoopsfans around here...

by zhivooden on Apr 14, 2008 7:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Law School Warp Shows Up Again

For those of you who have been spared the law school warp, "K" is not strike out, it is contract.

Nestor, it's funny how those shorthands never leave us.

Best,

sjh

by Class of 66 on Apr 14, 2008 7:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like to use a backwards K for verbals

by charnaw on Apr 14, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

why isn't it 'C'?

for contract? kontract??

by bruinofthenorth on Apr 14, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

C is for "Consideration"

one element necessary to form a K.

Weird, isn't it?

sjh

by Class of 66 on Apr 14, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My personal favorite?

SOL

Statute Of Limitations or something more profane if it works against you. :)

by Bruins100NCAA on Apr 14, 2008 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, good catch

I read through the post and didn't even notice the K--I guess my brain is also warped from 3 years of law school.

by FUSC on Apr 14, 2008 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

seemed completely natural to me. And I only have 2.9 years of law school behind me.

by bruinhoo on Apr 14, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

about DC and RW

often the reason players do the don't-sign-an-agent-but-go-to-NBA-workouts thing is because they can get a sense and some info about where they might go in the draft.

For RW's case, this worries me. If he follows this route and feels a top-10 pick, is he gone?

For DC's case, this makes me think the opposite. If he feels a 2nd-round selection, will he come back?

I think these are likely possibilities (the round placement, not the result necessarily)...but I guess time will tell.

by jjreicher on Apr 14, 2008 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Had DC gone out last year

he very probably would have been drafted higher than he will be this year. I believe that the injury he suffered at the beginning of the season is a huge factor in that. Last season DC was "cat-quick." This season, after his injury, he seemed a step slower. I wonder whether he ever really recovered from that injury and if he wasn't playing in pain all season long. It takes a long time to fully recover from knee ligament "sprains" or "partial tears."

My main point here is that RW has seen what happened to DC (and it could have worse). Even though he would almost certainly benefit from another year at UCLA, it would be tough to blame him for not wanting to risk a "Collison" scenario while his stock is so high.

by snorkeldorf on Apr 14, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

That's a very good point. I also think there's a scenario in which he comes back, plays as well as he did this year, and loses some shine in the eyes of the scouts. They're often drafting on potential, and unless he shows marked improvement he could lose some of that perceived 'potential' (ie: being the same player but a year older). With Roll back, Stanback a year in, and 3 top-flight guards coming in, I doubt he'll be playing almost 40 mins/game like he did this year. To base the decision on the potential impact of a 2nd NBA contract and being drafted higher the next year, when neither is a certainty after another year at UCLA, would be a very tough decision to make.

by cabz on Apr 14, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

RW

I honestly cannot see RW being a top-10 pick this year. I think think Ford's analysis is on-the-money here. Right now, RW is considered a combo guard - not big enough to match up with a lot of NBA SGs and not yet proven as a true PG prospect. As the draft process unfolds, and teams get past the YouTube moments and see that RW is going to be a bit of a project (especially if they want to play him at the point), I just don't see anyone taking a combo guard project with that high of a pick. Big men get drafted all the time as projects, but it happens far less often with guards - especially combo guards.

If he leaves now, it's going to be extremely important for him to get some luck and end up on a fairly bad (or thin) team that doesn't mind playing him now to see what they've got. The further he drops in the draft, the less likely that becomes, so I'll be pulling for him to have some amazing workouts should be declare.

by cabz on Apr 14, 2008 10:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, but

RW seems to be the type of player who would test out-of-this-world for scouts given his (albeit raw) athleticism. Look at Farmar--when he led all players with his vertical that one day he went from being late-first/early-second to solidifying his position in the first round.

by bruinhopeful on Apr 14, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

He's a lock for the first round, IMO. But to be a lottery pick he'd have to impress with his shot, his vision, his passing, and all of the other intangibles. In your example, Farmar solidified his spot by showing showing unexpected - that he was more athletic than people may have realized. Everyone knows RW is explosive, so the scouts will likely be looking at other things.

by cabz on Apr 14, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My two cents

I think it's in the best interest for perimeter players to maximize their potential in college before moving on to the NBA. Unlike the NBA -- a big man's league -- college basketball is driven by perimeter players. Guards and wings are dime a dozen at the next level, and NBA teams would rather allocate their resources developing a big man while looking for a more polished product on the perimeter coming out of school. Perimeter players are typically thrown in with the sharks to swim or be eaten alive and only the most ready to contribute now survive. The D-League and European leagues are rife of perimeter players who either couldn't hack it in the NBA or never even had a shot. The previously stated Brandon Roy example is a perfect case for a guard staying in school and entering the league a polished product worthy of the franchise label. I was hoping that Arron Afflalo would've followed the same course, but luckily for him he landed in a great situation in Detroit where his attributes fit in perfectly with the identity of that team.

I can understand that Darren Collison's situation now compared to last year could be a deterence, but while Collison is a great college PG, he never impressed me as a bonafide NBA PG. His value might have peaked after last season, but I think it was inflated to begin with. Maybe I'll be surprised by Collison's NBA career, I certainly hope so.

Westbrook should be asking himself the same basic question Griffin asked, mainly: "Do I just want to get to the NBA or do I want to be a star"? If Westbrook stayed in school to polish up his jumper and work on creating his own shot, then he would definitely go higher in the draft next year. Westbrook is still a raw product. He didn't dunk until his senior year in high school so he has only been a "slasher" for the past few years. He was a scorer in high school and didn't play PG until his freshman year of college, and even then he didn't really earn his PG stripes until this year. If he wants to be an NBA star he's going to have to develop into a Baron Davis/Gilbert Arenas type of guard. Baron Davis was a lottery pick while Arenas slipped to the 2nd round, and I think it would be in Westbrook's best interest to follow the former Bruin's career path considering the guaranteed money that awaits a first round pick.

by ishXdavid on Apr 14, 2008 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Further Thoughts

One of the interesting things about Westbrook is that we had some good looks in the tournament at the players who are in the same conversation in the draft.

Now we know Rose is real, we already had a look at Mayo, Bayless, and Budinger. Eric Gordon is a bit of a mystery, moving up and down a little bit at troubled Indiana. Gallani and Batum are talented Euro question marks.

But then you get into a tournament pool: CDR from Memphis (jr), Brandon Rush (jr), Mario Chalmers (jr), and Ty Lawson (soph). DJ Augustin we knew, along with Kyle Weaver from Wash St (sr).

Is Westbrook clearly better than all these guys? Again, it's a handy exercise to ask the question, if you're the Clippers, who do you pick? (And I still need someone to talk me out of wanting to pick KLove, despite the presence of Brand and Kaman).

I think Westbrook also has a chance to show real improvement. It would be great, and would make some sense for him to come back, but we'll see.

Collison is a different story. DC is a great player, but expectations for Collison in the NBA should be modest. That doesn't mean he won't belong. He'll be a valuable backup PG on any team, getting real minutes, and will be a defensive specialist against a bunch of great guards like Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Monte Ellis, and others. Having a guy on your team who can defend and stay in front of those players is a crucial element. And in that role he can get on a good team and get to know the league, kind of like Affalo playing behind Hamilton. And where he's projected, he'll go to one of the better teams, drafting further down. It's a scenario that has worked for both Farmar and Affalo.

And on the Bruins, with RW and Jrue, there's a chance that he might not even start and get the minutes. Just a chance--I doubt, if he came back, that he wouldn't get his spot. But still. I don't agree with the comment above that he was never as good this year as last. Yes, the injury hurt him so that his overall season wasn't everything it might have been. But he was recovered and tough and played outstanding basketball and took over a number of games towards the end of the season. He was clutch and deadly and dominant at times, and he showed plenty of maturity. He had a couple of bad games in the tournament, but in the last game Rose was just a tough matchup. He'll have problems with guys like Deron Williams and Baron Davis and Rose in the pros, but they're special players and there aren't that many of them. I think that the time to go is now for DC, he's worked hard, he's earned it and has been a great Bruin. He'll be good at the next level, but it's going to take some time. His game and his situation are very different from that of RW.

by zhivooden on Apr 14, 2008 4:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: zhivooden - I really like your analysis

But then the bottom line must be their own choices. Let these fine young men follow their hearts, regardless of the opinions of those draft experts, pundits, you and I included.

They gave it all this past season, one thrilling win after another. I understand as well as you do by now who may benefit for one more season and what not. But these are individuals with their own interests and concerns. I am grateful for what they and their cohorts did with their scholarships to restore Pauley's prestige and revive UCLA's once sullied mystique.

Now go out to the world, KLove & copmpany, soar high and may there always be winds behinds your sails !

by Htse005 on Apr 14, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Basketball Banquet

I just attended tonight's end of the year basketball banquet. What a classy event! It really showcased the program, Coach Howland, and the amazing student-athletes at UCLA. I can't repeat this enough, but CBH really recruits kids with great character and stable families. He had glowing words for all the players.

I tried to pick up some hints during CBH speech about which player or players might leave; the only conclusion I came up with is that it is a tough decision for all those involved. The guys are so close and want play for each other and for UCLA, but other factors are tugging at them.

CBH kept on promoting CRN and the football program, it is great that they are already supporting each other.

Lorenzo Mata received the loudest ovation...well deserved.

The video highlight that ended the night was simply...fantastic (produced by the bball video staff). It highlighted the entire season and then some. I hope it might show up on youtube or a DVD available through the athletic dept.

The future of the basketball program looks really bright.

Go Bruins!

by UCLA Champions Made Here on Apr 14, 2008 11:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re DVDs

Seems like we are finally selling them on the official site. But they are full games and it seems for now, only basketball.

Why not sell DVDs of the "best of" each season for football and basketball? I can't imagine, other than editing time, they would cost much to produce and would generate lots of income for the Athletic Department.

Seems like SC has a football DVD every year, so it can't be like it is against the rules to produce one or something. (Okay, perhaps a bad example, but is it a rights to the footage issue?)

by Free the 16 on Apr 15, 2008 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs