and found someone had already taken my SBN username (seattlebruin) :(. When are you guys migrating to the SB2.0 format?

And so that my first diary isn't entirely devoid of worthwhile content, here's a little piece I wrote out of boredom one day.

"It's all just f-ing luck"

Early in the 05-06 season, Jordan Farmar badly sprains his right ankle. It kills his explosiveness and causes scouts to doubt if he has the athleticism to play in the NBA. Jordan is already planning to leave after three years. Because of this, he enters the draft as a sophomore to test the waters and prove his ankle is fine, and instead finds a first round guarantee. He is followed by fellow sophomore Arron Afflalo into the draft.

Arron decides to come back to school for his junior season, when he is a first team All-American. However, Arron has now burned his draft card, and thus cannot enter the draft and then pull out again. Arron isn't really projected as a first round selection, so it's very possible that he chooses to return for his senior season if the rules permitted it. On a side note, I think 4-AFFLALO would be on permanent display at the Morgan Center if this had happened as well.

Arron is forced to stay in the draft and becomes a first round selection of the Detroit Pistons (sometimes it all works out OK and I can't imagine a more deserving person than Arron). In 2008, the Bruins fall in the Final Four primarily because they lack an impact wing who can guard either Derrick Rose or Chris Douglas-Roberts and make a few jumpers, plus bring unparalleled intensity to the team. They would have had that player had Arron Afflalo come back for his senior year.

Is this to say that Arron for sure would have come back or that the only reason why he declared in the first place was to follow Jordan? No, of course not. We really don't what would have happened - hell, Arron could have come back and gotten three cheap fouls again and we still lose.

The point is that it's all just fucking luck. Skill and talent give you the opportunity to win a national title, but from that point on, it's basically just fucking luck. What if Brandon Rush doesn't hurt his ACL? What if Melo decides he doesn't need to go college (he didn't) and becomes a top 5 NBA draft pick in '02? What if Corey Brewer doesn't say "fuck it, I may be from a low-income family, but I'm going to put off a multi-million dollar contact for a year because I love Florida so much?"

It's just luck. A year ago I said that UCLA probably couldn't win under Ben Howland because the team is virtually upset-proof - e.g. I don't see us ever being upset because of the style and discipline that Ben demands from his players, but I don't see us "upsetting" (I'm using a very liberal definition of the word "upset" here - taking it to mean anytime you play a team with superior talent, not a favored or particularly better team) anyone because of that same style. After thinking a bit more, I came to the conclusion that it's the same as baseball - obviously you can't succeed without talent and skill (coaching), but in order to win the title it takes a perfect combination of circumstances - in effect, once you get close to it, it's sheerly a matter of luck as to whether you win it.

With Ben, I'm sure we'll be there again, and eventually, Lady Luck will shine on the Bruins and 12 will go up in the rafters of Pauley Pavilion.

Here's to hoping it reads UCLA 2009 MEN'S BASKETBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONS