UCLA vs NC State Game Breakdown

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

What better way to celebrate the end of finals than to look ahead to our match up against NC State on Sunday. 

Starting with NC State's rosters, the Wolfpack goes 9 deep on their bench, with no player averaging over 30 minutes per game.


NC State
Guard:  Amber White, Junior 5’6"
Guard: Nikitta Gartrell, Senior 5’9
Guard: Marissa Kastanek, Freshman 5’9"
Forward: Bonae Holston, Sophomore 5’11"
Forward: Lucy Ellison, Senior 6’1"

Guard: Doreena Campbell, Junior 5’10"
Guard: Darxia Morris, Junior 5’8"
Guard: Erica Tukiainen, Senior 6’0"
Forward: Jasmine Dixon, Sophomore 5’11"
Forward: Markel Walker, Freshman 6’1"

As you can see, the starters are pretty even when it comes to size, so this will be a nice change for UCLA after giving up size at every position during the Stanford game.  Next, let's take a look at the numbers presented by

UCLA (22) vs N.C. St. (52)

Record 24-8 , 20-13
Conf Record 17-4 , 10-8 (I guess they're counting conference tournaments)
Home Record 12 – 2 , 13 - 3
Neutral Record 3 – 2 , 4 - 1
Road Record 9 – 4 , 3 - 9
Power Rating 0.5765 , 0.5092
Power Rating RANK 22 , 52
SOS 0.4609 , 0.4446
SOS RANK 24 , 33
Average points per game 67.59 , 64.85
Average points give up per game 56.84 , 62.48

RealTimeRPI GAMER - Game Prediction Analysis

GAMER Score Prediction:                                    UCLA 64      N.C. St. 55

GAMER Likely Score Range (68% chance):          51 ~ 77     44 ~ 66

GAMER Winning Probability (%):                           64.0%     36.0 %

GAMER Winning Odds:                                           1.8 to 1     1 to 1.8

For analysis on these numbers come with me after the jump.

Looking at just the numbers, UCLA is winning games by an average of around 11 points per game while NC State wins by about 2 points per game.  However, one thing going in NC State's favor is that they've played more games against top teams.  UCLA has played Stanford 3 times, Tennessee once, but not too many other teams with a top 50 RPI, giving UCLA a 3-6 record against the RPI top 50, while NC State is 7-10 against RPI top 50, so one could argue that NC State has been well tested this season.

When scouting the Wolfpack, the first thing that jumps out is that they have 3 players averaging double digits, and 5 with 7 or more a game.  UCLA also has 5 players averaging 7 points a game, with 2 averaging double digits.  Both teams have multiple scoring options so there is not just one key player to shut down.  NC State relies on the 3 more than we do, with 4 players on their team shooting at a 35% rate or better, whereas the Bruins have never really been a 3 point shooting team, with only 2 players on our roster making more than 35% a game.  They are also a better freethrow shooting team, making 74% a game to our 64%.

That is about where NC State's advantages end.  UCLA is a much better team away from home, with NC State winning only 3 games on the road.  We feature the much stronger rebounding team, out rebounding our opponents by 6.5 per game, against just 1.1 for the Wolfpack, and UCLA has a better turnover margin and dish out more assists per game.  UCLA shoots 44% from the field while NC State shoots 38%.  The biggest difference may come from coaching and halftime adjustments.  NC State has done worse in the second half than in the first, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points in the first but being outscored by .1 in the second per game, while UCLA outscores opponents by 4.5 in the first half, and by 6.3 in the second, so UCLA improves as the game goes on while NC State loses steam.  In the tournament, you definitely don't want to be a team that fades as the game goes on, and that is not something that describes UCLA. 

So that's some info to get this game discussion started.  It's harder for me to scout teams from outside of our conference, especially when they get no TV time, so all i have are the numbers to go by.  Gametime is set for 6:30pm PST on Sunday on ESPN2.  I and the band will be leaving with the team for Minneapolis Friday morning.  Pending internet access there without having to pay too much for it, I'll do my best to post a recap of the game and hopefully a preview of the Nebraska game if we make it that far.  Not sure what else to include in this but if you have any questions, I'll try my best to answer them.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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