I started to discuss this in another thread; but, rather than change its direction, I thought I'd post some thoughts here.
My main point: There is no reason that a strong commissioner can't negotiate a TV contract along the lines that are being discussed for other conferences.
Although I don't think it is the right way to analyze the issue, some have focused on the media markets in which the teams appear. The thesis was that the Big 12 schools possessed desirable markets. I don't think that's the right analysis, but here are the numbers.
Oklahoma City (Not Norman or Stillwater) #45
The obvious problem with this analysis is it is based upon the assumption that a team's appropriate market is the market in which it is located. That probably isn't true. Texas claims all of Texas; that's not true. A&M is located in College Station; not on the market share map; I'm sure it claims all of Texas, too; and I'm sure that's not true either.
There are probably better demographics that explain who watches which teams. If that's true, I think the Pac 10 picks up most of California including another major media market -- San Diego.
The bottom line -- none of the analysis done, to date explains why if the Big 12 can get a better contract than we can.
As I said in another thread, a Pac 10 network will have little competition for the late night midwest and eastern viewers; the Pac 10 will have the only games on.
I think we have not had the TV respect we deserve because of two factors:
First, we have yet to market west coast sports very well. We play an exciting brand of football and basketball and don't take advantage of it in promoting TV viewership.
Second, and perhaps the biggest problem, it has been almost impossible to find our games, nationwide because of the terrible coverage we've had due to the weak contract. Can anyone say "Versus"?
Finally, I've still not seen hard numbers to support the claims that schools will be doubling their revenues. All I've heard are "projections". You cannot take projections to the bank. Don't believe me? Ask the people who invested with Maddof and Stanford.