FanPost

Tribute to Dan Guererro

Dan the Man

Guerrero is ... credited with revitalizing an athletics program that was struggling at the time of his hire...

So states Dan Guerrero's Wikipedia page without attribution. Well, we know how much one should trust Wikipedia. Maybe part of that statement was cribbed from J.D. Morgan's Wikipedia page:

he [Morgan] is credited with "revitaliz[ing] the sports program...

In any case, let's take an objective look at Guerrero's impact on UCLA Athletics.

UCLA Football

I'll start with the "revitalized" Football program by comparing the the program's record during the 18 years before Dan against the 18 years of Dan's reign as AD.

18 years before Dan Football Record 18 years under Dan
10-7-1 vs. USC 5-13
11-7 vs. Stanford 7-12
11-7 vs. Cal 9-9
5 Losing Seasons 9
85-56 (59%) Conference 77-81 (49%)
5 Conf. Champs 0
131-75-3 (63)% Overall 118-111 (49%)
7-4 (3 Rose
Bowls)
Bowl Record 5-8 (0 Rose Bowls)
9 (6 top-10, Best #5) # Seasons Ranked (AP) 3 (1 top-10, Best #10)

No signs of revitalization here. In fact, just the opposite. Under Dan, our record against rivals USC and Stanford has been completely reversed, losing seasons have nearly doubled, win percentage has declined double digits, zero conference championships, and our bowl record and national ranking have been miserable. Except for a few good Jim Mora Jr. years, the data strongly reflect the overall irrelevancy of the football program during Guerrero's stewardship in which half of the seasons were losing ones. In fact, the last four consecutive losing seasons will punctuate Guerrero's departure leaving the football program in danger of becoming totally FUBAR.

UCLA Basketball

How about the Basketball program?

18 years before Dan Basketball Record 18 years under Dan
25-11 (69%) vs. USC 24-18 (57%)
0 Losing Seasons 4
238-104 (70)% Conference 202-120 (63%)
5 Conf. Champs* 4
420-180 (70%) Overall 395-210 (65%)
15 (8-Regional or better) NCAA Appearances** 10 (6-Regional or better)
Championship Best Tourney finish Finalist
10 (3 top-10, Best #1) # Seasons Ranked (AP) 7 (4 top-10, Best #4)
* Regular season
** not counting First Four

Not quite as bad as compared to football, but under Dan basketball has continued its slide from the glory days. Prior to Dan, basketball had not suffered a losing season since 1947-48; there have been 4 losing seasons under Dan's watch. Our record against USC is significantly worse. Overall win percentage has gone down as has the number of appearances in the NCAA tournament. Mick Cronin is a breath of fresh air after the Alford disaster, but if Mick is unable to move the needle, Ben Howland's best years will appear to be an aberration, rather than evidence of an elite program. If things don't improve, Guerrero's legacy will be that losing seasons, embarrassing blowout losses and tournament disappointments are simply SNAFU.

NCAA Team Championships and Olympic Sports

UCLA became the leader for the most NCAA team championships in 1996. Under Guerrero's "revitalization" UCLA was overtaken by Stanford by the end of the 2017-2018 season. Since then and in less than two seasons, Stanford has won nine more team championships versus UCLA's two. UCLA's +7 lead at the start of Dan's tenure reversed to -8 for a whopping 15 championship swing. While Stanford continues to accelerate ahead, UCLA appears mired in 2nd place.

18 years before Dan NCAA Championships 18 years under Dan +/-
39 Championships Won 32 -7
+7 Championships Lead* -8 -15
0 Baseball 1 +1
1 Basketball (Men's) 0 -1
0 Beach Volleyball 2 +2
1 Golf (Men's) 1 -
1 Golf (Women's) 2 +1
3 Women's Gymnastics 4 +1
3 Soccer (Men's) 1 -2
0 Soccer (Women's) 1 +1
7 Softball 4 -3
1 Tennis (Men's) 1 -
0 Tennis (Women's) 2 +2
2 Track & Field
(Men's)
0 -2
4 Track & Field
(Women's)
1 -3
8 Volleyball (Men's) 1 -7
3 Volleyball (Women's) 1 -2
4 Water Polo (Men's) 4 -
1 Water Polo (Women's) 6 +5
* Stanford currently leads UCLA 126 - 118 (Note: The UCLA Bruins Wikipedia page incorrectly includes the vacated 1995 Softball championship in its count of 119 championships. The official uclabruins.com site accurately lists our total of 118 NCAA Championships.)

Of the seven UCLA sports posting more championships under Dan than the previous 18 years (+/- column), four were under head coaches already in place: Carrie Forsyth (+1 Women's Golf), Valerie Kondos Field (+1 Gymnastics), Stella Sampras (+2 Women's Tennis), and Adam Krikorian (+5 Women's Water Polo).

Three sports earned first-time championships under head coaches selected by Dan: John Savage (+1 Baseball), Amanda Cromwell (+1 Women's Soccer) and Stein Metzger (+2 Beach Volleyball, which was not founded until 2016).

The remaining sports each have produced less NCAA championships under Dan as compared to the 18 years preceding him. Just as with Football and Softball, overall results trended down, giving little support for the assessment that Guerrero has revitalized the UCLA athletics program.

Dan, the Administrator

But wait, Dan's been a great administrator, right? No, not so much.

Financial Management

Dan leaves the UCLA Athletics department with a nearly $19 million dollar deficit for FY 2019, requiring a bailout loan from central campus.

After decades of balancing the books, UCLA’s athletic department finds itself in a hole. And not just any hole — a hole so deep, it resembles the worst of times...

UCLA athletics reported a whopping $18.9 million deficit for the 2019 fiscal year, according to a statement of revenues and expenses submitted to the NCAA and obtained by the Hotline.

Dan's all over this problem, though:

Guerrero is optimistic — "the investments made into our football and men’s basketball programs will pay off" ... "We have been actively working with campus to find long-term solutions," he said

Easy for Dan to say since the ship is sinking and he's the first one off. And not a moment too soon since there is an projected FY2020 deficit of $17 million.

Based on preliminary line-item projections in key areas provided by an athletic department spokesperson, the Hotline expects a deficit of approximately $17 million for FY20.

What a nice goodbye kiss...

Compliance

Academic Progress Rate (APR)
Dan's misguided choice of Alford resulted in a dramatic drop in UCLA basketball's multi-year APR - to just 3 points above the minimum.

Since Alford replaced Ben Howland, UCLA’s multi-year APR has fallen each year, from 969 in Howland’s final year to 965 in Alford’s debut, to 962, 950, 944 and then 933 in the 2017-18 academic year. The 11-point drop in the final year is due to an APR of 905 in Alford’s final year, the second-lowest single-year APR in the program’s history.

So giving Alford the boot was necessary because another year of him may have rendered UCLA ineligible to participate in NCAA basketball. But wait, there's more! From the same article.

The UCLA football team also sank to the bottom of the Pac-12 in APR this year due to a dramatic one-year decline in the first season with head coach Chip Kelly.

UCLA’s 948 multi-year APR for football dropped nearly 20 points with a 2017-18 single-season APR of 881, the lowest in program history after an exodus of transfers. More than two dozen players have left the program since Kelly took over, some due to transfer and others due to medical retirement. Players to leave the team due to medical reasons can remain on scholarship at the school.

Operation Varsity Blue$
Maybe this should be under financial management as Dan seems to have created a culture within the athletic department willing to do anything to raise funds.

It appears these headlines should be no surprise and is simply business as usual under Guerrero given UCLA's own 2014 internal investigation.

UCLA knew in 2014 that it violated University policies by offering two students admission after their parents pledged to make donations to the athletics program, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Hilariously, the following is the policy change following the investigation (from the same article above):

"Immediately in the wake of the investigation and its findings, UCLA Athletics implemented a policy that a donation could not be accepted from families of prospects until the student-athlete is enrolled at UCLA," he [Tod Tamberg, a UCLA spokesperson] said.

I see, it's all okay as long as the bribe is pocketed after the favor is received. Is it any surprise that UCLA would be caught up in the Varsity Blues scandal?

Will this be Dan's legacy?

This is straight-up bribery. And the fact that it was permitted and even allegedly encouraged by administrators makes it obvious UCLA is comically corrupt.

- Editorial: UCLA has lost integrity failing to hold officials involved in bribery accountable, April 14, 2019

Conclusion

The objective evidence above shows that Dan's 18-year tenure has resulted in a sports program that is struggling in all areas. UCLA Football and Basketball have been reduced to irrelevancy. UCLA lost the lead in NCAA Team Championships and continues to lose ground at a rapid pace. The $19 million debt Dan leaves will probably increase until the revenue sports actually result in net revenue. Dan can't say the problems with on-field results were because UCLA was a victim of "doing it the right way." Varsity Blues and UCLA's own internal investigation dispels that notion and seems to point to a lack of institutional control. UCLA was not revitalized under Dan.

The UCLA sports program is TARFU.

And yet Dan will leave next year receiving kind words from Gene Block and three NACDA Under Armour Athletic Director of the Year awards (is that why we got the UA contract?). He'll also receive a generous pension, which when added to his total salary earnings, may well exceed the debt he's leaving.

So here's to you, Dan: You have done so little for so long while gaining so much, that you are now qualified to do absolutely nothing.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

Trending Discussions