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UCLA basketball is holding a 2, a 4 and a 6. I'm thinking that there was a conversation that went something like this.
The guy currently in charge says "So Dan, my man, listen. I know things didn't go all that well last season. In basketball. Dan, are you listening? Pay attention. Don't fire me, dude. I've got NEXT. YEAR'S. RECRUITS." And of course Dan says to himself, "Yeah, it's almost a certainty that he'll draw a 3 and a 5, so we're golden. Maybe it's time for another contract extension."
Let's examine whether a bet on "Next Year's Recruits" is a sure thing, like Guerrero and some others think, or whether it is a primo sucker bet. I looked up where last year's "Next Year's Results" were for UCLA, and I chose Rivals, because it was the first one that came up in my search. I had no idea where UCLA was on this list, but I didn't realize I would have to get all the way to number 24 to find out where our "Next Year's Recruits" were ranked. Next to these "Next Year's Recruits" ranking, I listed the current AP ranking as of March 12.
| RANK | TEAM | AP | RECORD |
| 1 | Kentucky | 16 | 23-8 |
| 2 | Duke | 19 | 22-9 |
| 3 | Arizona | 15 | 24-7 |
| 4 | LSU | NR | 19-15 |
| 5 | Ohio State | NR | 20-13 |
| 6 | Kansas | 1 | 27-4 |
| 7 | California | 24 | 22-9 |
| 8 | Texas A&M | 17 | 24-7 |
| 9 | Louisville | 14 | 23-8 |
| 10 | Washington | NR | 18-14 |
| 11 | UNLV | NR | 18-15 |
| 12 | Syracuse | NR | 19-13 |
| 13 | Florida State | NR | 19-13 |
| 14 | Marquette | NR | 20-13 |
| 15 | Oregon | 8 | 25-6 |
| 16 | Mississippi State | NR | 14-17 |
| 17 | Memphis | NR | 18-14 |
| 18 | Texas A&M | 23 | 20-11 |
| 19 | Illinois | NR | 15-19 |
| 20 | Auburn | NR | 11-20 |
| 21 | Connecticut | NR | 23-10 |
| 22 | Villanova | 3 | 27-4 |
| 23 | Oregon State | NR | 19-12 |
Fourteen of the top 24 recruiting classes did not end up on teams which were ranked in the AP top 25.
Some teams without "Next Year's Recruits" managed to have reasonable records. None of these teams had Top 24 recruiting classes, according to Rivals.
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD |
| 2 | Michigan State | 26-5 |
| 4 | Virginia | 24-6 |
| 5 | Xavier | 26-4 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 24-6 |
| 7 | North Carolina | 25-6 |
| 9 | West Virginia | 24-7 |
| 10 | Indiana | 25-6 |
| 11 | Miami | 24-6 |
| 12 | Utah | 24-7 |
| 13 | Purdue | 24-7 |
| 18 | Maryland | 24-7 |
| 20 | Iowa | 21-9 |
| 21 | Iowa State | 21-10 |
| 22 | Baylor | 21-10 |
| 25 | SMU | 25-5 |
So we've seen how last year's "next year's recruits" worked out. But what about next year's "Next Year's Recruits" you ask. Well, here's how Rivals ranks them.
| RANK | TEAM |
| 1 | Kentucky |
| 2 | Duke |
| 3 | Michigan State |
| 4 | Mississippi State |
| 5 | UCLA |
| 6 | Connecticut |
| 7 | Virginia |
| 8 | Florida State |
| 9 | North Carolina |
| 10 | Miami |
| 11 | Syracuse |
| 12 | Oregon |
| 13 | Auburn |
| 14 | Alabama |
| 15 | Gonzaga |
| 16 | UNLV |
| 17 | Indiana |
| 18 | Penn State |
| 19 | NC State |
| 20 | Maryland |
| 21 | Washington |
| 22 | Butler |
| 23 | Oklahoma |
| 24 | Minnesota |
So we should expect a big turn-around, I guess. From what I read about Lonzo Ball, he's the next coming of, well, I guess of Ben Simmons, who has guided LSU to, oh. Wait. Never mind. Lonzo Ball is the next coming of somebody whose team is actually going to make the tournament.
I'm not rocket surgeon, but it doesn't appear to me that there is a guaranteed, sure-thing correlation between recruiting class ranking and team success, as measured by the AP poll. But then I don't think it's a good bet that I'll fill that inside straight. That's one of the differences between Director Guerrero and me - he thinks that inside straight draw is a certainty. He not only will call the bet of UCLA's basketball fortunes for next year, he will raise -- he's going to up the bet to include UCLA's basketball legacy.