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Brett Hundley and the 2014 NFL Draft: The Risk Factors for One More Season

Part 3 of a 4 part series of posts discussing whether Brett Hundley should go to the NFL draft after his red-shirt sophomore season (2013) at UCLA.

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Now as convincing as the arguments are re. Hundley to stick around for another season, there are strong counter-arguments for Hundley to leave this year if he finds himself in position to be a top-10 draft pick. AHMB made the following points in response to B's arguments re. why Hundley should stick around for an extra year.

Football is just too risky. First, B is right that the transition isn't always smooth for dual threat quarterbacks. However, the same can be said for prototypical quarterbacks, as well as running backs, offensive lineman, etc. At the end of the day, he's going to enter the draft at some point, and the higher pick he is, the more likely he's going to end up playing for a terrible team. Plus, it's worth remembering that, RGIII had a hell of a rookie year, and EJ Manuel looks pretty damn good.

Regarding B's third point, I agree that this year's class is stronger. You also left out David Fales out of San Jose St., who is a likely first round talent as well. The thing is, if he isn't rated higher than those quarterbacks, the point is moot. He wouldn't be a top 10-15 pick if he was the 5th or 6th rated quarterback, and I would agree that he shouldn't come out. If he is rated higher, then the fact that there are other quarterbacks that would drafted after him doesn't really matter.

The hardest point (as a UCLA fanatic) to counter is your second argument. If he stays, he would have a chance to become a UCLA legend. He also has the chance at getting hurt and delays his earnings for a year. Given that the NFL now has a rookie salary scale, he's be delaying his second contract for a year, and playing another year of football before he gets the second contract means another year of risk before he hits the big payday. I have a hard time with that issue, and as much as I'd love him to stay at UCLA, the smart move is to take the money.

Odysseus and Ajax also agree with AHMB's line of arguments adding that NFL is always looking for QBs and Hundley has prototypical size and his arm had looked stronger this year. Football is so physical and the body can only take so many hits, so it's hard to fault anyone who is going to be Sure fire first rounder for going, although there's only so many chances for a championship and that's definitely a reason to stay. But it's a huge risk to pull a Leinart/Barkley (if Hundley is in the same position as them after putting together a monster season).

IE Angel also concurred adding this:

I think he'll leave personally. But I also thought Barr should have left last year. Can't say no to being a first round pick. And there are so many NFL teams with the QB spot in flux. He could end up a top 5 pick or drop into a perfect situation like Tampa with talent and an expensive offensive line.

If we win 11 games and go to the Rose Bowl, he has no reason to risk staying.

Hey, an 11 win season and a trip to the Rose Bowl doesn't sound all that bad? Does it? :-)

We will finish some closing thoughts in our last post on this tomorrow.