It’s hard right now not to be bullish on UCLA football.
While surely no one is expecting Chip Kelly to be a miracle worker and take the Bruins from 6-7 to an undefeated season in his first year, it is a little surprising that the Bovada SportsBook has announced the opening win total for UCLA football in 2018 at an Over/Under 5, meaning they are expecting the Bruins to win one less game this year than last year.
To be sure, we don’t normally discuss betting on UCLA football here on the site, but I do think even the most bearish (no pun intended) of Bruin fans would say that they are expecting the team to win at least as many games as last year.
SB Nation’s advanced statistical guru Bill Connelly is predicting a 6-6 season based on his S&P+ formula. Connelly admits that there “about 38 different directions” the season could go, but he also willingly admits that his S&P+ calculations have no way to account for the effects of a coaching change.
Personally, I just have a feeling that the Bruins are going to surprise some folks this Fall. Why? Because the cupboard is full for Chip. I’ve argued for a long time that the problem under Mora was a lack of development and deployment/in-game strategy. At this point, I’m really thinking that the Bruins will improve their win total over last season.
By how much?
I don’t know yet, but if they won 6 games last season and they improve by one game, it’s better than what Connelly’s formula predicts
And, if Bovada’s Over/Under Win Total for the Bruins is 5, then I would expect the Las Vegas sportsbooks to do the same. If you agree and happen to be in Vegas this Summer, you may want to put down some cash on the over before it rises.
As always, bet responsibly.