Pac-12 Championship Race: UCLA Controls its Destiny

The game time is set for next Saturday night. The Bruins are going to be on national TV when they look to three peat against Southern Cal at the Rose Bowl. The game just got even bigger tonight with Oregon State's massive upset of Arizona State.

UCLA is now the only program in control of its own destiny in the Pac-12 South. Patroclus broke down all the scenarios in the Pac-12 South earlier tonight:

Division race overview

The Bruins now control their destiny - beat Southern Cal and Stanford, and UCLA wins the South

If we lose next Saturday, ASU wins the South if they beat WSU next week and Arizona in the finale.

If Arizona wins out, and we beat SC but lose to Stanford, the Wildcats win the division.

If Arizona wins out, and we lose to Southern Cal, the trogans win.

And in the Battle Royale/Cluster*@%k scenario: If we beat SC, but lose to Stanford; ASU beats WSU but loses to Arizona, and Utah beats Arizona and the Buffs, the Utes win the South in a 5-way tiebreaker. Yes, ASU's loss tonight kept Utah alive!

Here are how the tiebreakers among the South contenders break down after tonight's action:

UCLA: Arizona, ASU
Arizona: N/A
ASU: USC, Utah
Southern Cal: Arizona
Utah: UCLA, USC

Relevant games remaining: UCLA/USC, Arizona/Utah, Arizona/ASU.

Taking another moment to look at that final, crazy tiebreak scenario. If that scenario does occur, then all 5 teams will end the season tied with a 6-3 conference record. According to the Pac-12's Football tiebreak rules, in the event of a 3+ team tie for first place, a series of tiebreak criteria are applied until 2 teams remain, at which point the normal 2 team/head-to-head tiebreak is used to determine the division champion.

Under this scenario, the first 3+ team tiebreaker is sufficient to narrow the contenders down to 2 - head-to-head record among the 5 tied teams.

Arizona and Southern Cal are eliminated by their 1-3 records in group, and ASU is eliminated due to their 2-2 record against this group of 5. This leaves UCLA and Utah remaining with 3-1 records against the tied teams. Utah then prevails in the final tiebreak and wins the South thanks to their October win at the Rose Bowl. The same logic holds if ASU were to also lose to WSU next week, leaving a 4-way tie.

Let's hope we don't need to worry about anything beyond the first scenario. Get it done Coach Mora.

Go Bruins!!!! Beat SC.