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UCLA Olympic Sports: Polls & Postseason Probabilities - 28 October 2015

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Bruins Nation gauges the likelihood that UCLA Men's Soccer, UCLA Women's Soccer, UCLA Women's Volleyball, and UCLA Men's Water Polo will earn 2015 NCAA Tournament bids.

@UCLAWomensVB

Men's Soccer - NSCAA Coaches Poll

October 27, 2015

Headline: UCLA Climbs Into Top-25 Despite Winless Week

Last Week: UCLA drew with #3 Stanford 2-2, and lost to California 4-3.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

[Updated] Somehow UCLA is back in the top-25 of the Coaches Poll after a disappointing weekend. The Bruins (7-7-1, 3-3-1) are currently in second place in the conference, but the Huskies are close behind. UCLA has a tough non-conference game this week at #6 Akron, and then closes out its season with conference games against Oregon State, Washington, and San Diego State. The Bruins can't afford to lose more than one of their remaining four matches to have a realistic shot at an NCAA tournament berth. Ordinarily I'd identify the final three games as the most likely opportunities for UCLA to pick up wins, but Coach Salcedo's team is incredibly talented and equally inconsistent, so the Bruins are capable of beating any team and losing to any team. Three wins should get the Bruins into the tournament; two wins, a draw and a loss might see them sneak in, but that's a dangerous scenario. The path to getting those three wins isn't terribly difficult, but considering the many ways the team has found to fail this season, I rate their chances of qualifying for the postseason at slightly less than 50/50.

RANK TEAM RECORD POINTS PREVIOUS
1 Creighton (21) 15-0-0 592 1
2 Wake Forest (1) 12-1-2 576 2
3 Clemson 13-1-2 550 4
4 Stanford (2) 13-1-2 527 3
5 North Carolina 13-1-1 505 6
6 Akron 11-2-2 463 5
7 Georgetown 10-2-2 457 9
8 Denver 11-0-3 417 7
9 SMU 11-2-3 382 12
10 Coastal Carolina 11-1-1 350 11
11 South Florida 10-3-2 346 13
12 Syracuse 10-4-2 338 15
13 Old Dominion 8-2-2 326 14
14 Notre Dame 8-3-5 321 8
15 Seattle 14-3-0 249 19
16 Kentucky 8-3-2 245 16
17 Hofstra 11-5-0 177 24
18 Virginia 9-3-2 174 21
19 Elon 12-4-0 130 10
20 Cal Poly 9-3-4 116 23
21 Rutgers 10-4-1 100 NR
22 Monmouth 11-3-3 87 25
23 Ohio State 9-5-2 76 18
24 Dartmouth 8-3-1 61 RV
25 UCLA 7-7-1 43 RV

Women's Soccer - NSCAA Coaches Poll

October 27, 2015

Headline: A Weekend Sweep Keeps The Bruins' Slim Postseason Hopes Alive

Last Week: UCLA defeated Colorado 2-1, and defeated Utah 1-0.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

Unfortunately, in spite of the Bruins winning both games last weekend, UCLA (8-7-1, 4-3-1) is a longshot to make the NCAA tournament. The Bruins have a very difficult trio of games to close out the 2015 regular season: #20 California on Thursday, #4 Stanford on Sunday, and #16 Southern California next Friday. All of those teams appear to be NCAA tournament-bound this season, so the Bruins probably need to win a minimum of two of those three games to have a realistic shot of earning a postseason bid. That makes beating California (12-4-2, 5-3-0) tomorrow essential as it will allow the Bruins to leapfrog the Golden Bears in the Pac-12 standings. Even so, the Bruins will need help to pass #21 Arizona and Washington in the conference standings.

RANK TEAM RECORD POINTS PREVIOUS
1 Virginia (27) 13-1-1 767 2
2 West Virginia (1) 15-1-1 732 3
3 Florida State (2) 13-2-2 709 1
4 Stanford (1) 14-2-0 692 4
5 Virginia Tech 14-2-2 627 7
6 Florida 13-3-1 612 8
7 Clemson 12-3-1 565 6
8 North Carolina 13-3-1 556 9
9 Rutgers 13-2-2 508 12
10 Penn State 12-3-2 500 10
11 Connecticut 16-2-0 456 11
12 Mississippi 13-3-2 425 13
13 Brigham Young 12-2-2 410 5
14 Notre Dame 12-4-1 364 15
15 Santa Clara 11-5-1 306 20
16 Southern California 11-4-1 280 24
17 South Carolina 11-4-2 221 17
18 Texas Tech 9-3-5 191 21
19 Auburn 13-4-0 178 16
20 California 12-4-2 164 14
21 Arizona 12-4-1 135 NR
22 Duke 9-5-4 132 22
23 St. John's 14-2-1 109 NR
24 South Florida 14-3-2 96 18
25 Wisconsin 11-4-4 78 NR

UCLA (8-7-1, 4-3-1) earned 0 points.

Women's Volleyball - AVCA Coaches Poll

October 26, 2015

Headline: The Bruins Extend Winning Streak to Seven Games

Last Week: #10 UCLA defeated #25 Oregon 3-1, and defeated Oregon State 3-2.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

It would take an epic meltdown by UCLA (17-3, 8-2) to miss the NCAA tournament in 2015. The Bruins have 10 remaining conference games, and they should be heavy favorites in at least half of them. There are three particularly important upcoming regular season games: a showdown with #5 Washington on Sunday, a meeting with #1 USC on November 25th, and a battle with #7 Stanford in the regular season finale. While UCLA is a virtual lock to make the NCAA tournament even if it loses all three of those games, the Bruins probably need to win eight of their last 10 to claim second place in the Pac-12.

RANK TEAM POINTS RECORD PREVIOUS
1 Southern California (64) 1600 22-0 1
2 Texas 1533 18-1 2
3 Penn State 1451 19-2 5
4 Minnesota 1327 17-3 9
5 Washington 1306 18-2 4
6 Hawai'i 1177 18-1 8
7 Stanford 1151 13-5 11
8 UCLA 1145 17-3 10
9 Nebraska 1118 16-4 3
10 Kansas 1100 19-1 7
11 Ohio State 1042 19-3 6
T-12 Florida 801 15-4 15
T-12 Wisconsin 801 14-6 16
14 Arizona State 785 17-4 13
15 Florida State 673 17-4 17
16 BYU 639 18-3 12
17 Purdue 594 17-4 19
18 Colorado State 472 17-3 20
19 Arizona 440 14-8 14
20 Kentucky 418 15-6 21
21 Illinois 361 13-8 18
22 Western Kentucky 227 23-2 22
23 Louisville 202 16-4 24
24 San Diego 98 16-6 NR
25 Michigan 89 15-6 23

Men's Water Polo - CWPA Coaches Poll

October 28, 2015

Headline: UCLA Knocks Out Stanford for the Second Time this Season

Last Week: #1 UCLA defeated #4 Stanford 12-8, and defeated San Jose State 10-0.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

With just four games left before the MPSF tournament begins, it's hard to imagine a realistic scenario that doesn't see UCLA qualify for the NCAA tournament. That said, there are no easy games left for the Bruins. In the next couple of weeks, UCLA's opponents are #2 Pacific, #6 UC Santa Barbara, #8 Long Beach State, and #3 USC. But the #1 Bruins (21-0, 5-0) have a great track record against elite teams--they are 6-0 this season against the current top-5--so they look set to make a strong push for another national championship.

RANK TEAM POINTS PREVIOUS
1 UCLA 100 1
2 Pacific 93 4
3 Southern California 90 2
4 California 87 3
5 Stanford 80 5
6 UC Santa Barbara 75 6
7 UC Irvine 70 7
8 Long Beach State 65 8
9 Pepperdine 60 9
10 UC Davis 46 10
10 Princeton 46 12
12 Brown 42 11
12 Harvard 42 19
14 Bucknell 33 14
15 Loyola Marymount 30 18
16 Santa Clara 29 16
17 UC San Diego 21 14
18 Air Force 17 13
19 California Baptist 9 NR
20 Navy 4 20

Go BRUINS!