UCLA Olympic Sports: Polls & Postseason Probabilities - 28 October 2015

Men's Soccer - NSCAA Coaches Poll

October 27, 2015

Headline: UCLA Climbs Into Top-25 Despite Winless Week

Last Week: UCLA drew with #3 Stanford 2-2, and lost to California 4-3.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

[Updated] Somehow UCLA is back in the top-25 of the Coaches Poll after a disappointing weekend. The Bruins (7-7-1, 3-3-1) are currently in second place in the conference, but the Huskies are close behind. UCLA has a tough non-conference game this week at #6 Akron, and then closes out its season with conference games against Oregon State, Washington, and San Diego State. The Bruins can't afford to lose more than one of their remaining four matches to have a realistic shot at an NCAA tournament berth. Ordinarily I'd identify the final three games as the most likely opportunities for UCLA to pick up wins, but Coach Salcedo's team is incredibly talented and equally inconsistent, so the Bruins are capable of beating any team and losing to any team. Three wins should get the Bruins into the tournament; two wins, a draw and a loss might see them sneak in, but that's a dangerous scenario. The path to getting those three wins isn't terribly difficult, but considering the many ways the team has found to fail this season, I rate their chances of qualifying for the postseason at slightly less than 50/50.

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	POINTS	PREVIOUS
1	Creighton (21)	15-0-0	592	1
2	Wake Forest (1)	12-1-2	576	2
3	Clemson	13-1-2	550	4
4	Stanford (2)	13-1-2	527	3
5	North Carolina	13-1-1	505	6
6	Akron	11-2-2	463	5
7	Georgetown	10-2-2	457	9
8	Denver	11-0-3	417	7
9	SMU	11-2-3	382	12
10	Coastal Carolina	11-1-1	350	11
11	South Florida	10-3-2	346	13
12	Syracuse	10-4-2	338	15
13	Old Dominion	8-2-2	326	14
14	Notre Dame	8-3-5	321	8
15	Seattle	14-3-0	249	19
16	Kentucky	8-3-2	245	16
17	Hofstra	11-5-0	177	24
18	Virginia	9-3-2	174	21
19	Elon	12-4-0	130	10
20	Cal Poly	9-3-4	116	23
21	Rutgers	10-4-1	100	NR
22	Monmouth	11-3-3	87	25
23	Ohio State	9-5-2	76	18
24	Dartmouth	8-3-1	61	RV
25	UCLA	7-7-1	43	RV

Women's Soccer - NSCAA Coaches Poll

October 27, 2015

Headline: A Weekend Sweep Keeps The Bruins' Slim Postseason Hopes Alive

Last Week: UCLA defeated Colorado 2-1, and defeated Utah 1-0.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

Unfortunately, in spite of the Bruins winning both games last weekend, UCLA (8-7-1, 4-3-1) is a longshot to make the NCAA tournament. The Bruins have a very difficult trio of games to close out the 2015 regular season: #20 California on Thursday, #4 Stanford on Sunday, and #16 Southern California next Friday. All of those teams appear to be NCAA tournament-bound this season, so the Bruins probably need to win a minimum of two of those three games to have a realistic shot of earning a postseason bid. That makes beating California (12-4-2, 5-3-0) tomorrow essential as it will allow the Bruins to leapfrog the Golden Bears in the Pac-12 standings. Even so, the Bruins will need help to pass #21 Arizona and Washington in the conference standings.

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	POINTS	PREVIOUS
1	Virginia (27)	13-1-1	767	2
2	West Virginia (1)	15-1-1	732	3
3	Florida State (2)	13-2-2	709	1
4	Stanford (1)	14-2-0	692	4
5	Virginia Tech	14-2-2	627	7
6	Florida	13-3-1	612	8
7	Clemson	12-3-1	565	6
8	North Carolina	13-3-1	556	9
9	Rutgers	13-2-2	508	12
10	Penn State	12-3-2	500	10
11	Connecticut	16-2-0	456	11
12	Mississippi	13-3-2	425	13
13	Brigham Young	12-2-2	410	5
14	Notre Dame	12-4-1	364	15
15	Santa Clara	11-5-1	306	20
16	Southern California	11-4-1	280	24
17	South Carolina	11-4-2	221	17
18	Texas Tech	9-3-5	191	21
19	Auburn	13-4-0	178	16
20	California	12-4-2	164	14
21	Arizona	12-4-1	135	NR
22	Duke	9-5-4	132	22
23	St. John's	14-2-1	109	NR
24	South Florida	14-3-2	96	18
25	Wisconsin	11-4-4	78	NR

UCLA (8-7-1, 4-3-1) earned 0 points.

Women's Volleyball - AVCA Coaches Poll

October 26, 2015

Headline: The Bruins Extend Winning Streak to Seven Games

Last Week: #10 UCLA defeated #25 Oregon 3-1, and defeated Oregon State 3-2.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

It would take an epic meltdown by UCLA (17-3, 8-2) to miss the NCAA tournament in 2015. The Bruins have 10 remaining conference games, and they should be heavy favorites in at least half of them. There are three particularly important upcoming regular season games: a showdown with #5 Washington on Sunday, a meeting with #1 USC on November 25th, and a battle with #7 Stanford in the regular season finale. While UCLA is a virtual lock to make the NCAA tournament even if it loses all three of those games, the Bruins probably need to win eight of their last 10 to claim second place in the Pac-12.

RANK	TEAM	POINTS	RECORD	PREVIOUS
1	Southern California (64)	1600	22-0	1
2	Texas	1533	18-1	2
3	Penn State	1451	19-2	5
4	Minnesota	1327	17-3	9
5	Washington	1306	18-2	4
6	Hawai'i	1177	18-1	8
7	Stanford	1151	13-5	11
8	UCLA	1145	17-3	10
9	Nebraska	1118	16-4	3
10	Kansas	1100	19-1	7
11	Ohio State	1042	19-3	6
T-12	Florida	801	15-4	15
T-12	Wisconsin	801	14-6	16
14	Arizona State	785	17-4	13
15	Florida State	673	17-4	17
16	BYU	639	18-3	12
17	Purdue	594	17-4	19
18	Colorado State	472	17-3	20
19	Arizona	440	14-8	14
20	Kentucky	418	15-6	21
21	Illinois	361	13-8	18
22	Western Kentucky	227	23-2	22
23	Louisville	202	16-4	24
24	San Diego	98	16-6	NR
25	Michigan	89	15-6	23

Men's Water Polo - CWPA Coaches Poll

October 28, 2015

Headline: UCLA Knocks Out Stanford for the Second Time this Season

Last Week: #1 UCLA defeated #4 Stanford 12-8, and defeated San Jose State 10-0.

Likelihood Of Postseason Play (out of 5): 

With just four games left before the MPSF tournament begins, it's hard to imagine a realistic scenario that doesn't see UCLA qualify for the NCAA tournament. That said, there are no easy games left for the Bruins. In the next couple of weeks, UCLA's opponents are #2 Pacific, #6 UC Santa Barbara, #8 Long Beach State, and #3 USC. But the #1 Bruins (21-0, 5-0) have a great track record against elite teams--they are 6-0 this season against the current top-5--so they look set to make a strong push for another national championship.

RANK	TEAM	POINTS	PREVIOUS
1	UCLA	100	1
2	Pacific	93	4
3	Southern California	90	2
4	California	87	3
5	Stanford	80	5
6	UC Santa Barbara	75	6
7	UC Irvine	70	7
8	Long Beach State	65	8
9	Pepperdine	60	9
10	UC Davis	46	10
10	Princeton	46	12
12	Brown	42	11
12	Harvard	42	19
14	Bucknell	33	14
15	Loyola Marymount	30	18
16	Santa Clara	29	16
17	UC San Diego	21	14
18	Air Force	17	13
19	California Baptist	9	NR
20	Navy	4	20

Go BRUINS!